Chefs Warehouse Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| CHEF Stock | USD 63.16 0.00 0.00% |
Chefs Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Chefs Warehouse's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 28th of January 2026, The value of RSI of Chefs Warehouse's share price is at 52 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Chefs Warehouse, making its price go up or down. Momentum 52
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.325 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.621 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.8597 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.1406 | Wall Street Target Price 76.5 |
Using Chefs Warehouse hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of The Chefs Warehouse from the perspective of Chefs Warehouse response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Chefs Warehouse using Chefs Warehouse's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Chefs using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Chefs Warehouse's stock price.
Chefs Warehouse Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Chefs Warehouse's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Chefs. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Chefs Warehouse stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 61.4794 | Short Percent 0.155 | Short Ratio 12.85 | Shares Short Prior Month 5.1 M | 50 Day MA 61.6126 |
Chefs Relative Strength Index
The Simple Regression forecasted value of The Chefs Warehouse on the next trading day is expected to be 63.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.51 and the sum of the absolute errors of 92.40.Chefs Warehouse Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Chefs Warehouse's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Chefs. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Chefs can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around The Chefs Warehouse. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Chefs Warehouse's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Chefs Warehouse.
Chefs Warehouse Implied Volatility | 0.49 |
Chefs Warehouse's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of The Chefs Warehouse stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Chefs Warehouse's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Chefs Warehouse stock will not fluctuate a lot when Chefs Warehouse's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of The Chefs Warehouse on the next trading day is expected to be 63.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.51 and the sum of the absolute errors of 92.40. Chefs Warehouse after-hype prediction price | USD 63.65 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Chefs Warehouse to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Chefs contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that The Chefs Warehouse will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0306% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Chefs Warehouse trading at USD 63.16, that is roughly USD 0.0193 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Chefs Warehouse's daily price movement you should consider acquiring The Chefs Warehouse options at the current volatility level of 0.49%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Chefs Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Chefs Warehouse's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Chefs Warehouse's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Chefs Warehouse stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Chefs Warehouse's open interest, investors have to compare it to Chefs Warehouse's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Chefs Warehouse is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Chefs. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Chefs Warehouse Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Chefs price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Chefs using various technical indicators. When you analyze Chefs charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Chefs Warehouse Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of The Chefs Warehouse on the next trading day is expected to be 63.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.51, mean absolute percentage error of 3.14, and the sum of the absolute errors of 92.40.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Chefs Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Chefs Warehouse's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Chefs Warehouse Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Chefs Warehouse | Chefs Warehouse Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Chefs Warehouse Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Chefs Warehouse's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Chefs Warehouse's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 61.56 and 65.24, respectively. We have considered Chefs Warehouse's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Chefs Warehouse stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Chefs Warehouse stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.2561 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.5147 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0247 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 92.3977 |
Predictive Modules for Chefs Warehouse
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Chefs Warehouse. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Chefs Warehouse's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Chefs Warehouse After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Chefs Warehouse at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Chefs Warehouse or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Chefs Warehouse, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Chefs Warehouse Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Chefs Warehouse's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Chefs Warehouse's historical news coverage. Chefs Warehouse's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 61.81 and 65.49, respectively. We have considered Chefs Warehouse's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Chefs Warehouse is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Chefs Warehouse is based on 3 months time horizon.
Chefs Warehouse Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Chefs Warehouse is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Chefs Warehouse backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Chefs Warehouse, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.12 | 1.84 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 11 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
63.16 | 63.65 | 0.05 |
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Chefs Warehouse Hype Timeline
Chefs Warehouse is currently traded for 63.16. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Chefs is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 63.65. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.05%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.12%. The volatility of related hype on Chefs Warehouse is about 1460.32%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 63.14. About 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Chefs Warehouse was currently reported as 14.18. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Chefs Warehouse to cross-verify your projections.Chefs Warehouse Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Chefs Warehouse's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Chefs Warehouse's future price movements. Getting to know how Chefs Warehouse's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Chefs Warehouse may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| UNFI | United Natural Foods | 0.87 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 3.75 | (7.32) | 13.48 | |
| COCO | Vita Coco | 1.76 | 10 per month | 1.93 | 0.18 | 4.79 | (3.36) | 13.15 | |
| FLO | Flowers Foods | 0.56 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 3.55 | (3.72) | 11.13 | |
| CCU | Compania Cervecerias Unidas | (0.24) | 8 per month | 1.40 | 0.17 | 2.62 | (2.23) | 9.52 | |
| CHA | Chagee Holdings Limited | (0.15) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 5.85 | (4.48) | 15.71 | |
| SAM | Boston Beer | (2.59) | 9 per month | 1.99 | (0.03) | 3.11 | (3.36) | 10.23 | |
| ANDE | The Andersons | (1.08) | 12 per month | 1.16 | 0.20 | 4.37 | (2.24) | 7.65 | |
| FRPT | Freshpet | (2.89) | 11 per month | 1.92 | 0.10 | 4.05 | (3.90) | 18.92 | |
| RLX | RLX Technology | 0.03 | 6 per month | 1.44 | 0.01 | 3.45 | (2.93) | 13.76 | |
| IPAR | Inter Parfums | 2.47 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 2.62 | (3.84) | 8.82 |
Other Forecasting Options for Chefs Warehouse
For every potential investor in Chefs, whether a beginner or expert, Chefs Warehouse's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Chefs Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Chefs. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Chefs Warehouse's price trends.Chefs Warehouse Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Chefs Warehouse stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Chefs Warehouse could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Chefs Warehouse by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Chefs Warehouse Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Chefs Warehouse stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Chefs Warehouse shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Chefs Warehouse stock market strength indicators, traders can identify The Chefs Warehouse entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0333 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 64.09 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 63.78 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 2.17 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.93) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 52.62 |
Chefs Warehouse Risk Indicators
The analysis of Chefs Warehouse's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Chefs Warehouse's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting chefs stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.42 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.55 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.99 | |||
| Variance | 3.98 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.85 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.4 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.54) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Chefs Warehouse
The number of cover stories for Chefs Warehouse depends on current market conditions and Chefs Warehouse's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Chefs Warehouse is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Chefs Warehouse's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Chefs Warehouse Short Properties
Chefs Warehouse's future price predictability will typically decrease when Chefs Warehouse's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of The Chefs Warehouse often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Chefs Warehouse's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Chefs Warehouse's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 46 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 114.7 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Chefs Warehouse to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
Is Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Chefs Warehouse. If investors know Chefs will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Chefs Warehouse listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.325 | Earnings Share 1.73 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.096 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Chefs Warehouse is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Chefs that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Chefs Warehouse's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Chefs Warehouse's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Chefs Warehouse's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Chefs Warehouse's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Chefs Warehouse's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Chefs Warehouse is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Chefs Warehouse's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.