Chunghwa Telecom Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| CHWD Stock | EUR 35.40 0.40 1.14% |
Chunghwa Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Chunghwa Telecom's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 2nd of February 2026, the relative strength index (RSI) of Chunghwa Telecom's share price is approaching 47 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Chunghwa Telecom, making its price go up or down. Momentum 47
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.048 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.042 |
Using Chunghwa Telecom hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Chunghwa Telecom Co from the perspective of Chunghwa Telecom response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Chunghwa Telecom Co on the next trading day is expected to be 35.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.60. Chunghwa Telecom after-hype prediction price | EUR 35.39 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Chunghwa |
Chunghwa Telecom Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Chunghwa price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Chunghwa using various technical indicators. When you analyze Chunghwa charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Chunghwa Telecom Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Chunghwa Telecom Co on the next trading day is expected to be 35.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28, mean absolute percentage error of 0.20, and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.60.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Chunghwa Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Chunghwa Telecom's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Chunghwa Telecom Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Chunghwa Telecom | Chunghwa Telecom Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Chunghwa Telecom Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Chunghwa Telecom's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Chunghwa Telecom's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 34.01 and 36.79, respectively. We have considered Chunghwa Telecom's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Chunghwa Telecom stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Chunghwa Telecom stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.8404 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0305 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2814 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0079 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 16.6 |
Predictive Modules for Chunghwa Telecom
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Chunghwa Telecom. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Chunghwa Telecom's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Chunghwa Telecom After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Chunghwa Telecom at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Chunghwa Telecom or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Chunghwa Telecom, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Chunghwa Telecom Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Chunghwa Telecom's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Chunghwa Telecom's historical news coverage. Chunghwa Telecom's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 34.00 and 36.78, respectively. We have considered Chunghwa Telecom's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Chunghwa Telecom is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Chunghwa Telecom is based on 3 months time horizon.
Chunghwa Telecom Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Chunghwa Telecom is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Chunghwa Telecom backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Chunghwa Telecom, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 1.39 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 6 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
35.40 | 35.39 | 0.03 |
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Chunghwa Telecom Hype Timeline
Chunghwa Telecom is currently traded for 35.40on Frankfurt Exchange of Germany. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Chunghwa is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 35.39. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price drop on the next news is expected to be -0.03%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.05%. The volatility of related hype on Chunghwa Telecom is about 366.75%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 35.42. The book value of the company was currently reported as 1.3. The company last dividend was issued on the 3rd of July 2025. Chunghwa Telecom had 1.20961:1 split on the 15th of October 2008. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Chunghwa Telecom to cross-verify your projections.Chunghwa Telecom Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Chunghwa Telecom's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Chunghwa Telecom's future price movements. Getting to know how Chunghwa Telecom's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Chunghwa Telecom may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HNC | Hanison Construction Holdings | 0.00 | 1 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| XC5 | Beauty Farm Medical | (0.02) | 3 per month | 2.27 | 0 | 5.97 | (5.04) | 14.81 | |
| 8HH | Avanos Medical | (0.1) | 7 per month | 1.80 | 0.05 | 3.92 | (3.50) | 14.57 | |
| N5Z | North American Construction | (0.30) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 4.17 | (2.99) | 13.10 | |
| HCM | Hitachi Construction Machinery | (0.60) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 3.65 | (3.17) | 14.49 | |
| UCE | ULTRA CLEAN HLDGS | (1.00) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 4.20 | (4.92) | 14.33 | |
| 3TY | TITAN MACHINERY | 2.50 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 3.01 | (3.47) | 25.42 | |
| OM50 | Observe Medical ASA | 2.55 | 4 per month | 3.32 | 0.01 | 5.61 | (7.08) | 21.40 |
Other Forecasting Options for Chunghwa Telecom
For every potential investor in Chunghwa, whether a beginner or expert, Chunghwa Telecom's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Chunghwa Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Chunghwa. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Chunghwa Telecom's price trends.Chunghwa Telecom Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Chunghwa Telecom stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Chunghwa Telecom could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Chunghwa Telecom by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Chunghwa Telecom Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Chunghwa Telecom stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Chunghwa Telecom shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Chunghwa Telecom stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Chunghwa Telecom Co entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 35.4 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 35.4 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.2 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.4 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 47.04 |
Chunghwa Telecom Risk Indicators
The analysis of Chunghwa Telecom's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Chunghwa Telecom's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting chunghwa stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7788 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.35 | |||
| Variance | 1.81 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Chunghwa Telecom
The number of cover stories for Chunghwa Telecom depends on current market conditions and Chunghwa Telecom's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Chunghwa Telecom is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Chunghwa Telecom's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Chunghwa Telecom to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.