VictoryShares International Etf Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| CIL Etf | USD 56.36 0.24 0.43% |
VictoryShares Etf outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength momentum indicator of VictoryShares International's etf price is about 68 suggesting that the etf is rather overbought by investors as of now. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling VictoryShares, making its price go up or down. Momentum 68
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using VictoryShares International hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of VictoryShares International Volatility from the perspective of VictoryShares International response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of VictoryShares International Volatility on the next trading day is expected to be 56.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.41. VictoryShares International after-hype prediction price | USD 56.36 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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VictoryShares International Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine VictoryShares price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for VictoryShares using various technical indicators. When you analyze VictoryShares charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
VictoryShares International Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of VictoryShares International Volatility on the next trading day is expected to be 56.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26, mean absolute percentage error of 0.11, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.41.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict VictoryShares Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that VictoryShares International's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
VictoryShares International Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest VictoryShares International | VictoryShares International Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
VictoryShares International Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting VictoryShares International's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. VictoryShares International's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 55.89 and 57.07, respectively. We have considered VictoryShares International's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of VictoryShares International etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent VictoryShares International etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0594 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2612 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0049 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 15.4125 |
Predictive Modules for VictoryShares International
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as VictoryShares International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.VictoryShares International After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of VictoryShares International at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in VictoryShares International or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of VictoryShares International, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
VictoryShares International Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting VictoryShares International's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on VictoryShares International's historical news coverage. VictoryShares International's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 55.74 and 56.98, respectively. We have considered VictoryShares International's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
VictoryShares International is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of VictoryShares International is based on 3 months time horizon.
VictoryShares International Etf Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as VictoryShares International is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading VictoryShares International backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with VictoryShares International, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.14 | 0.59 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 2 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
56.36 | 56.36 | 0.00 |
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VictoryShares International Hype Timeline
On the 28th of January VictoryShares International is traded for 56.36. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. VictoryShares is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.14%. %. The volatility of related hype on VictoryShares International is about 1512.82%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 56.37. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.73. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of VictoryShares International to cross-verify your projections.VictoryShares International Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to VictoryShares International's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict VictoryShares International's future price movements. Getting to know how VictoryShares International's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how VictoryShares International may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AFMC | First Trust Active | 0.37 | 9 per month | 0.70 | 0.05 | 1.75 | (1.55) | 3.90 | |
| SMDX | Intech SP Small Mid | (0.01) | 2 per month | 0.77 | 0.03 | 1.80 | (1.62) | 4.14 | |
| IFGL | iShares International Developed | (0.1) | 1 per month | 0.57 | 0 | 0.89 | (1.17) | 2.66 | |
| LSAT | Two Roads Shared | (0.01) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 1.26 | (1.22) | 3.68 | |
| SLX | VanEck Steel ETF | (0.28) | 8 per month | 0.87 | 0.22 | 2.31 | (1.83) | 5.47 | |
| STNC | Hennessy Stance ESG | (0.06) | 1 per month | 0.71 | (0.02) | 1.48 | (1.30) | 3.02 | |
| HUSV | First Trust Horizon | (0.05) | 3 per month | 0.60 | (0.12) | 0.84 | (0.92) | 2.64 | |
| RIET | Hoya Capital High | 0.02 | 1 per month | 0.67 | (0) | 1.43 | (1.29) | 3.47 | |
| EEMX | SPDR MSCI Emerging | 0.37 | 1 per month | 0.49 | 0.12 | 1.63 | (1.14) | 3.44 | |
| BKF | iShares MSCI BIC | 0.14 | 3 per month | 0.61 | (0.08) | 1.34 | (1.19) | 3.92 |
Other Forecasting Options for VictoryShares International
For every potential investor in VictoryShares, whether a beginner or expert, VictoryShares International's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. VictoryShares Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in VictoryShares. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying VictoryShares International's price trends.VictoryShares International Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with VictoryShares International etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of VictoryShares International could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing VictoryShares International by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
VictoryShares International Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how VictoryShares International etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading VictoryShares International shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying VictoryShares International etf market strength indicators, traders can identify VictoryShares International Volatility entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
VictoryShares International Risk Indicators
The analysis of VictoryShares International's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in VictoryShares International's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting victoryshares etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.4594 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.4137 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.5836 | |||
| Variance | 0.3405 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.4094 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.1711 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.49) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for VictoryShares International
The number of cover stories for VictoryShares International depends on current market conditions and VictoryShares International's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that VictoryShares International is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about VictoryShares International's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of VictoryShares International to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.
The market value of VictoryShares International is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of VictoryShares that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of VictoryShares International's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is VictoryShares International's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because VictoryShares International's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect VictoryShares International's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between VictoryShares International's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if VictoryShares International is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, VictoryShares International's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.