Cincinnati Financial Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| CINF34 Stock | BRL 414.54 0.00 0.00% |
Cincinnati Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Cincinnati Financial stock prices and determine the direction of Cincinnati Financial's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Cincinnati Financial's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time The value of RSI of Cincinnati Financial's share price is above 80 suggesting that the stock is significantly overbought by investors. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 100
Buy Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Cincinnati Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Cincinnati Financial from the perspective of Cincinnati Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cincinnati Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 414.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.61. Cincinnati Financial after-hype prediction price | BRL 414.54 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Cincinnati |
Cincinnati Financial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Cincinnati price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Cincinnati using various technical indicators. When you analyze Cincinnati charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Cincinnati Financial Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cincinnati Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 414.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.61.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cincinnati Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cincinnati Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Cincinnati Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Cincinnati Financial | Cincinnati Financial Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Cincinnati Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Cincinnati Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Cincinnati Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 414.49 and 414.59, respectively. We have considered Cincinnati Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cincinnati Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cincinnati Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0273 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0273 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 1.0E-4 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.61 |
Predictive Modules for Cincinnati Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cincinnati Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Cincinnati Financial After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Cincinnati Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Cincinnati Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Cincinnati Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Cincinnati Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Cincinnati Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Cincinnati Financial's historical news coverage. Cincinnati Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 414.49 and 414.59, respectively. We have considered Cincinnati Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Cincinnati Financial is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Cincinnati Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.
Cincinnati Financial Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Cincinnati Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Cincinnati Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Cincinnati Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.01 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
414.54 | 414.54 | 0.00 |
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Cincinnati Financial Hype Timeline
Cincinnati Financial is currently traded for 414.54on Sao Paulo Exchange of Brazil. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Cincinnati is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on Cincinnati Financial is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 414.54. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 46.76. Cincinnati Financial last dividend was issued on the 16th of June 2021. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next estimated press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cincinnati Financial to cross-verify your projections.Cincinnati Financial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Cincinnati Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Cincinnati Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how Cincinnati Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Cincinnati Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| P1EA34 | Healthpeak Properties | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 1.65 | (3.66) | 9.18 | |
| I1RM34 | Iron Mountain Incorporated | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 2.30 | (3.81) | 10.17 | |
| Z1OM34 | Zoom Video Communications | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.98 | 0.01 | 3.71 | (3.73) | 15.87 | |
| UNHH34 | UnitedHealth Group Incorporated | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.72 | (2.48) | 8.05 | |
| SSFO34 | salesforce inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.37 | (4.42) | 13.25 | |
| MATD3 | Hospital Mater Dei | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.25 | 0.16 | 4.95 | (4.28) | 14.38 | |
| E1LV34 | Elevance Health | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.49 | 0.01 | 2.47 | (2.17) | 9.67 |
Other Forecasting Options for Cincinnati Financial
For every potential investor in Cincinnati, whether a beginner or expert, Cincinnati Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Cincinnati Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Cincinnati. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Cincinnati Financial's price trends.Cincinnati Financial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Cincinnati Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Cincinnati Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Cincinnati Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Cincinnati Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Cincinnati Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Cincinnati Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Cincinnati Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Cincinnati Financial entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 414.54 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 414.54 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 100.0 |
Cincinnati Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of Cincinnati Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Cincinnati Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cincinnati stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.0116 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.048 | |||
| Variance | 0.0023 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Cincinnati Financial
The number of cover stories for Cincinnati Financial depends on current market conditions and Cincinnati Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Cincinnati Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Cincinnati Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Cincinnati Financial Short Properties
Cincinnati Financial's future price predictability will typically decrease when Cincinnati Financial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Cincinnati Financial often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Cincinnati Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cincinnati Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Trailing Annual Dividend Rate | 2.43 | |
| Float Shares | 310.71M | |
| Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day | 39 | |
| Average Daily Volume In Three Month | 11 | |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Yield | 0.73% |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Cincinnati Stock
When determining whether Cincinnati Financial is a strong investment it is important to analyze Cincinnati Financial's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Cincinnati Financial's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Cincinnati Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cincinnati Financial to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Cincinnati Stock refer to our How to Trade Cincinnati Stock guide.You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.