Centuria Industrial Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| CIP Stock | 3.21 0.01 0.31% |
Centuria Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Centuria Industrial's share price is approaching 44 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Centuria Industrial, making its price go up or down. Momentum 44
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.111 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.1828 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.1916 | Wall Street Target Price 3.5882 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.062 |
Using Centuria Industrial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Centuria Industrial REIT from the perspective of Centuria Industrial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Centuria Industrial REIT on the next trading day is expected to be 3.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.34. Centuria Industrial after-hype prediction price | AUD 3.22 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Centuria |
Centuria Industrial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Centuria price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Centuria using various technical indicators. When you analyze Centuria charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Centuria Industrial Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Centuria Industrial REIT on the next trading day is expected to be 3.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0008, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.34.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Centuria Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Centuria Industrial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Centuria Industrial Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Centuria Industrial | Centuria Industrial Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Centuria Industrial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Centuria Industrial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Centuria Industrial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.24 and 4.18, respectively. We have considered Centuria Industrial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Centuria Industrial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Centuria Industrial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.9777 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0054 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.022 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0067 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.3438 |
Predictive Modules for Centuria Industrial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Centuria Industrial REIT. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Centuria Industrial After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Centuria Industrial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Centuria Industrial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Centuria Industrial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Centuria Industrial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Centuria Industrial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Centuria Industrial's historical news coverage. Centuria Industrial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 2.25 and 4.19, respectively. We have considered Centuria Industrial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Centuria Industrial is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Centuria Industrial REIT is based on 3 months time horizon.
Centuria Industrial Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Centuria Industrial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Centuria Industrial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Centuria Industrial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.09 | 0.97 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 2 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
3.21 | 3.22 | 0.31 |
|
Centuria Industrial Hype Timeline
Centuria Industrial REIT is currently traded for 3.21on Australian Securities Exchange of Australia. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Centuria is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 3.22 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is anticipated to be 0.31%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.09%. The volatility of related hype on Centuria Industrial is about 16560.98%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.21. The company reported the revenue of 233.32 M. Net Income was 133.06 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 222.45 M. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Centuria Industrial to cross-verify your projections.Centuria Industrial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Centuria Industrial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Centuria Industrial's future price movements. Getting to know how Centuria Industrial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Centuria Industrial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| VML | Vital Metals | 0.01 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 5.88 | (5.56) | 17.59 | |
| AGI | Ainsworth Game Technology | 0.00 | 3 per month | 1.37 | 0.0008 | 1.98 | (1.96) | 18.22 | |
| KME | Kip Mcgrath Education | 0.01 | 3 per month | 1.84 | (0.02) | 3.85 | (3.77) | 13.15 | |
| SLB | Stelar Metals | (0) | 3 per month | 3.52 | (0.01) | 7.14 | (8.33) | 20.44 | |
| NDO | Nido Education | (0.03) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 5.36 | (5.00) | 12.67 | |
| GEM | G8 Education | (0.02) | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.28) | 1.56 | (4.17) | 25.11 | |
| MTC | Metalstech | (0.01) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 8.33 | (7.69) | 25.53 |
Other Forecasting Options for Centuria Industrial
For every potential investor in Centuria, whether a beginner or expert, Centuria Industrial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Centuria Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Centuria. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Centuria Industrial's price trends.Centuria Industrial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Centuria Industrial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Centuria Industrial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Centuria Industrial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Centuria Industrial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Centuria Industrial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Centuria Industrial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Centuria Industrial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Centuria Industrial REIT entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Centuria Industrial Risk Indicators
The analysis of Centuria Industrial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Centuria Industrial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting centuria stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7389 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.943 | |||
| Variance | 0.8893 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Centuria Industrial
The number of cover stories for Centuria Industrial depends on current market conditions and Centuria Industrial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Centuria Industrial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Centuria Industrial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios
Story Categories
Currently Trending Categories
Centuria Industrial Short Properties
Centuria Industrial's future price predictability will typically decrease when Centuria Industrial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Centuria Industrial REIT often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Centuria Industrial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Centuria Industrial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 634.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 15 M |
Additional Tools for Centuria Stock Analysis
When running Centuria Industrial's price analysis, check to measure Centuria Industrial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Centuria Industrial is operating at the current time. Most of Centuria Industrial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Centuria Industrial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Centuria Industrial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Centuria Industrial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.