Calvert Long-term Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

CLDAX Fund  USD 15.99  0.02  0.13%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Calvert Long Term Income on the next trading day is expected to be 15.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.41. Calvert Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Calvert Long-term's share price is at 53 suggesting that the mutual fund is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Calvert Long-term, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 53

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Calvert Long-term's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Calvert Long Term Income, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Calvert Long-term hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Calvert Long Term Income from the perspective of Calvert Long-term response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Calvert Long Term Income on the next trading day is expected to be 15.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.41.

Calvert Long-term after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 0.0  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Calvert Long-term to cross-verify your projections.

Calvert Long-term Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Calvert price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Calvert using various technical indicators. When you analyze Calvert charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Calvert Long-term simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Calvert Long Term Income are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Calvert Long Term prices get older.

Calvert Long-term Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 10th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Calvert Long Term Income on the next trading day is expected to be 15.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0008, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.41.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Calvert Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Calvert Long-term's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Calvert Long-term Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Calvert Long-term Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Calvert Long-term's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Calvert Long-term's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 15.81 and 16.17, respectively. We have considered Calvert Long-term's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
15.99
15.99
Expected Value
16.17
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Calvert Long-term mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Calvert Long-term mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria109.154
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0015
MADMean absolute deviation0.0236
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0015
SAESum of the absolute errors1.4147
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Calvert Long Term Income forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Calvert Long-term observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Calvert Long-term

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Calvert Long Term. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.000.000.18
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.000.000.18
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
15.9115.9616.01
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Calvert Long-term. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Calvert Long-term's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Calvert Long-term's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Calvert Long Term.

Other Forecasting Options for Calvert Long-term

For every potential investor in Calvert, whether a beginner or expert, Calvert Long-term's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Calvert Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Calvert. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Calvert Long-term's price trends.

Calvert Long-term Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Calvert Long-term mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Calvert Long-term could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Calvert Long-term by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Calvert Long Term Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Calvert Long-term's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Calvert Long-term's current price.

Calvert Long-term Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Calvert Long-term mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Calvert Long-term shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Calvert Long-term mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Calvert Long Term Income entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Calvert Long-term Risk Indicators

The analysis of Calvert Long-term's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Calvert Long-term's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting calvert mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Calvert Mutual Fund

Calvert Long-term financial ratios help investors to determine whether Calvert Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Calvert with respect to the benefits of owning Calvert Long-term security.
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