Celldex Therapeutics Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| CLDX Stock | USD 25.92 0.93 3.46% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Celldex Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 24.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.99 and the sum of the absolute errors of 61.15. Celldex Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the rsi of Celldex Therapeutics' share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.93) | EPS Estimate Current Year (3.59) | EPS Estimate Next Year (4.42) | Wall Street Target Price 53.3571 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.89) |
Using Celldex Therapeutics hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Celldex Therapeutics from the perspective of Celldex Therapeutics response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Celldex Therapeutics using Celldex Therapeutics' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Celldex using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Celldex Therapeutics' stock price.
Celldex Therapeutics Short Interest
An investor who is long Celldex Therapeutics may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Celldex Therapeutics and may potentially protect profits, hedge Celldex Therapeutics with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 23.3857 | Short Percent 0.1466 | Short Ratio 10.59 | Shares Short Prior Month 6.9 M | 50 Day MA 26.431 |
Celldex Therapeutics Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Celldex Therapeutics' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Celldex. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Celldex can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Celldex Therapeutics. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Celldex Therapeutics Implied Volatility | 0.77 |
Celldex Therapeutics' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Celldex Therapeutics stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Celldex Therapeutics' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Celldex Therapeutics stock will not fluctuate a lot when Celldex Therapeutics' options are near their expiration.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Celldex Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 24.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.99 and the sum of the absolute errors of 61.15. Celldex Therapeutics after-hype prediction price | USD 25.93 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Celldex Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Celldex contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Celldex Therapeutics will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0481% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Celldex Therapeutics trading at USD 25.92, that is roughly USD 0.0125 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Celldex Therapeutics' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Celldex Therapeutics options at the current volatility level of 0.77%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Celldex Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Celldex Therapeutics' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Celldex Therapeutics' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Celldex Therapeutics stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Celldex Therapeutics' open interest, investors have to compare it to Celldex Therapeutics' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Celldex Therapeutics is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Celldex. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Celldex Therapeutics Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Celldex price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Celldex using various technical indicators. When you analyze Celldex charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Celldex Therapeutics Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Celldex Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 24.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.99, mean absolute percentage error of 1.54, and the sum of the absolute errors of 61.15.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Celldex Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Celldex Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Celldex Therapeutics Stock Forecast Pattern
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Celldex Therapeutics Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Celldex Therapeutics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Celldex Therapeutics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 21.51 and 27.92, respectively. We have considered Celldex Therapeutics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Celldex Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Celldex Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.3803 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9862 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0378 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 61.1458 |
Predictive Modules for Celldex Therapeutics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Celldex Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Celldex Therapeutics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Celldex Therapeutics After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Celldex Therapeutics at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Celldex Therapeutics or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Celldex Therapeutics, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Celldex Therapeutics Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Celldex Therapeutics' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Celldex Therapeutics' historical news coverage. Celldex Therapeutics' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 22.73 and 29.13, respectively. We have considered Celldex Therapeutics' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Celldex Therapeutics is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Celldex Therapeutics is based on 3 months time horizon.
Celldex Therapeutics Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Celldex Therapeutics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Celldex Therapeutics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Celldex Therapeutics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.04 | 3.20 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 3 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 3 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
25.92 | 25.93 | 0.04 |
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Celldex Therapeutics Hype Timeline
Celldex Therapeutics is currently traded for 25.92. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Celldex is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 25.93 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.04%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.04%. The volatility of related hype on Celldex Therapeutics is about 1963.19%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 25.93. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 7.02 M. Net Loss for the year was (157.86 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (214.08 M). Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 3 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Celldex Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections.Celldex Therapeutics Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Celldex Therapeutics' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Celldex Therapeutics' future price movements. Getting to know how Celldex Therapeutics' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Celldex Therapeutics may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| VERA | Vera Therapeutics | 0.30 | 12 per month | 3.13 | 0.15 | 10.77 | (5.81) | 23.44 | |
| ABCL | Abcellera Biologics | 0.02 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 5.90 | (8.62) | 19.23 | |
| JANX | Janux Therapeutics | (0.53) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 9.48 | (6.55) | 63.52 | |
| IMNM | Immunome | (0.17) | 8 per month | 3.90 | 0.15 | 7.87 | (5.33) | 31.45 | |
| BHVN | Biohaven Pharmaceutical Holding | 1.48 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 10.23 | (7.35) | 45.51 | |
| SYRE | Spyre Therapeutics | 0.96 | 6 per month | 2.23 | 0.17 | 7.15 | (3.87) | 20.03 | |
| QURE | Uniqure NV | 0.30 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 9.37 | (10.75) | 60.67 | |
| SION | Sionna Therapeutics Common | (1.33) | 7 per month | 4.48 | 0.08 | 11.87 | (8.47) | 47.28 | |
| HRMY | Harmony Biosciences Holdings | 0.30 | 3 per month | 1.46 | 0.20 | 3.65 | (2.28) | 19.23 | |
| NUVB | Nuvation Bio | 0.30 | 6 per month | 4.54 | 0.10 | 10.48 | (5.78) | 68.61 |
Other Forecasting Options for Celldex Therapeutics
For every potential investor in Celldex, whether a beginner or expert, Celldex Therapeutics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Celldex Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Celldex. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Celldex Therapeutics' price trends.Celldex Therapeutics Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Celldex Therapeutics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Celldex Therapeutics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Celldex Therapeutics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Celldex Therapeutics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Celldex Therapeutics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Celldex Therapeutics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Celldex Therapeutics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Celldex Therapeutics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 13391.31 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.90) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 26.23 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 26.12 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.77) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.93) |
Celldex Therapeutics Risk Indicators
The analysis of Celldex Therapeutics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Celldex Therapeutics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting celldex stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.44 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.15 | |||
| Variance | 9.94 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Celldex Therapeutics
The number of cover stories for Celldex Therapeutics depends on current market conditions and Celldex Therapeutics' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Celldex Therapeutics is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Celldex Therapeutics' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Celldex Therapeutics Short Properties
Celldex Therapeutics' future price predictability will typically decrease when Celldex Therapeutics' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Celldex Therapeutics often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Celldex Therapeutics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Celldex Therapeutics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 64.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 725.3 M |
Additional Tools for Celldex Stock Analysis
When running Celldex Therapeutics' price analysis, check to measure Celldex Therapeutics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Celldex Therapeutics is operating at the current time. Most of Celldex Therapeutics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Celldex Therapeutics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Celldex Therapeutics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Celldex Therapeutics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.