Future Scholar Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

CLGAX Fund  USD 12.29  0.01  0.08%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Future Scholar 529 on the next trading day is expected to be 12.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.54. Future Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Future Scholar's share price is below 20 suggesting that the mutual fund is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Future Scholar's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Future Scholar 529, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Future Scholar hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Future Scholar 529 from the perspective of Future Scholar response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Future Scholar 529 on the next trading day is expected to be 12.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.54.

Future Scholar after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 12.28  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Future Scholar to cross-verify your projections.

Future Scholar Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Future price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Future using various technical indicators. When you analyze Future charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for Future Scholar is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Future Scholar 529 value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Future Scholar Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Future Scholar 529 on the next trading day is expected to be 12.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0001, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.54.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Future Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Future Scholar's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Future Scholar Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Future ScholarFuture Scholar Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Future Scholar Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Future Scholar's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Future Scholar's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.17 and 12.35, respectively. We have considered Future Scholar's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
12.29
12.26
Expected Value
12.35
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Future Scholar mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Future Scholar mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria109.1065
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0089
MAPEMean absolute percentage error7.0E-4
SAESum of the absolute errors0.5445
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Future Scholar 529. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Future Scholar. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Future Scholar

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Future Scholar 529. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
12.1912.2812.37
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
11.2011.2913.51
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
12.2212.2612.30
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Future Scholar. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Future Scholar's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Future Scholar's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Future Scholar 529.

Future Scholar After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Future Scholar at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Future Scholar or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Future Scholar, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Future Scholar Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Future Scholar's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Future Scholar's historical news coverage. Future Scholar's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 12.19 and 12.37, respectively. We have considered Future Scholar's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
12.29
12.28
After-hype Price
12.37
Upside
Future Scholar is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Future Scholar 529 is based on 3 months time horizon.

Future Scholar Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Future Scholar is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Future Scholar backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Future Scholar, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.01 
0.09
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
1 Events / Month
In 5 to 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
12.29
12.28
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Future Scholar Hype Timeline

Future Scholar 529 is currently traded for 12.29. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Future is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on Future Scholar is about 2400.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 12.29. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Future Scholar to cross-verify your projections.

Future Scholar Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Future Scholar's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Future Scholar's future price movements. Getting to know how Future Scholar's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Future Scholar may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Future Scholar

For every potential investor in Future, whether a beginner or expert, Future Scholar's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Future Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Future. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Future Scholar's price trends.

Future Scholar Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Future Scholar mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Future Scholar could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Future Scholar by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Future Scholar Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Future Scholar mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Future Scholar shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Future Scholar mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Future Scholar 529 entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Future Scholar Risk Indicators

The analysis of Future Scholar's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Future Scholar's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting future mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Future Scholar

The number of cover stories for Future Scholar depends on current market conditions and Future Scholar's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Future Scholar is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Future Scholar's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Other Information on Investing in Future Mutual Fund

Future Scholar financial ratios help investors to determine whether Future Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Future with respect to the benefits of owning Future Scholar security.
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