Clover Health Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| CLOV Stock | USD 2.36 0.13 5.22% |
Clover Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Clover Health's share price is approaching 39 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Clover Health, making its price go up or down. Momentum 39
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Current Year 0.04 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.06 | Wall Street Target Price 3.2333 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.02 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.501 |
Using Clover Health hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Clover Health Investments from the perspective of Clover Health response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Clover Health using Clover Health's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Clover using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Clover Health's stock price.
Clover Health Short Interest
An investor who is long Clover Health may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Clover Health and may potentially protect profits, hedge Clover Health with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 2.9045 | Short Percent 0.0973 | Short Ratio 8.13 | Shares Short Prior Month 38.2 M | 50 Day MA 2.5274 |
Clover Relative Strength Index
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Clover Health Investments on the next trading day is expected to be 2.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.93.Clover Health Investments Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Clover Health's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Clover. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Clover can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Clover Health Investments. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Clover Health's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Clover Health.
Clover Health Implied Volatility | 1.19 |
Clover Health's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Clover Health Investments stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Clover Health's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Clover Health stock will not fluctuate a lot when Clover Health's options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Clover Health Investments on the next trading day is expected to be 2.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.93. Clover Health after-hype prediction price | USD 2.36 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Clover Health to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Clover contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Clover Health Investments will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0744% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Clover Health trading at USD 2.36, that is roughly USD 0.001755 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Clover Health's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Clover Health Investments options at the current volatility level of 1.19%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Clover Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Clover Health's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Clover Health's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Clover Health stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Clover Health's open interest, investors have to compare it to Clover Health's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Clover Health is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Clover. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Clover Health Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Clover price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Clover using various technical indicators. When you analyze Clover charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Clover Health Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Clover Health Investments on the next trading day is expected to be 2.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.93.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Clover Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Clover Health's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Clover Health Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Clover Health | Clover Health Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Clover Health Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Clover Health's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Clover Health's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 6.44, respectively. We have considered Clover Health's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Clover Health stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Clover Health stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0101 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0835 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0317 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 4.9258 |
Predictive Modules for Clover Health
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Clover Health Investments. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Clover Health After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Clover Health at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Clover Health or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Clover Health, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Clover Health Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Clover Health's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Clover Health's historical news coverage. Clover Health's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.12 and 6.45, respectively. We have considered Clover Health's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Clover Health is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Clover Health Investments is based on 3 months time horizon.
Clover Health Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Clover Health is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Clover Health backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Clover Health, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.58 | 4.12 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 7 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
2.36 | 2.36 | 0.00 |
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Clover Health Hype Timeline
Clover Health Investments is currently traded for 2.36. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Clover is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.58%. %. The volatility of related hype on Clover Health is about 7357.14%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.39. About 32.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Clover Health was currently reported as 0.66. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.11. Clover Health Investments had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Clover Health to cross-verify your projections.Clover Health Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Clover Health's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Clover Health's future price movements. Getting to know how Clover Health's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Clover Health may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PRCT | Procept Biorobotics Corp | 0.05 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 7.06 | (5.10) | 17.63 | |
| TWST | Twist Bioscience Corp | (0.29) | 4 per month | 3.10 | 0.11 | 7.37 | (4.95) | 17.30 | |
| QDEL | Quidel | (1.45) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 8.12 | (6.16) | 24.99 | |
| NHC | National HealthCare | 2.37 | 6 per month | 1.62 | 0.08 | 2.84 | (2.20) | 9.28 | |
| BGM | Qilian International Holding | (0.19) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.38) | 5.43 | (6.55) | 18.41 | |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services | (0.29) | 10 per month | 2.51 | 0.03 | 4.18 | (3.61) | 13.96 | |
| LFST | Lifestance Health Group | 0.00 | 11 per month | 1.04 | 0.12 | 3.26 | (2.55) | 32.81 | |
| GPCR | Structure Therapeutics American | 0.43 | 11 per month | 2.77 | 0.18 | 8.96 | (5.94) | 110.34 | |
| CERT | Certara | 0.01 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 4.75 | (4.25) | 25.45 | |
| TXG | 10X Genomics | (0.08) | 29 per month | 2.54 | 0.16 | 10.23 | (3.91) | 23.84 |
Other Forecasting Options for Clover Health
For every potential investor in Clover, whether a beginner or expert, Clover Health's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Clover Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Clover. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Clover Health's price trends.Clover Health Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Clover Health stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Clover Health could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Clover Health by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Clover Health Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Clover Health stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Clover Health shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Clover Health stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Clover Health Investments entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Clover Health Risk Indicators
The analysis of Clover Health's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Clover Health's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting clover stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.14 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.71 | |||
| Variance | 22.19 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Clover Health
The number of cover stories for Clover Health depends on current market conditions and Clover Health's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Clover Health is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Clover Health's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Clover Health Short Properties
Clover Health's future price predictability will typically decrease when Clover Health's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Clover Health Investments often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Clover Health's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Clover Health's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 490 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 221.5 M |
Additional Tools for Clover Stock Analysis
When running Clover Health's price analysis, check to measure Clover Health's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Clover Health is operating at the current time. Most of Clover Health's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Clover Health's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Clover Health's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Clover Health to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.