Columbus McKinnon Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| CMCO Stock | USD 21.26 0.37 1.77% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Columbus McKinnon on the next trading day is expected to be 22.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.52 and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.00. Columbus Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of Columbus McKinnon's stock price is about 65 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Columbus, making its price go up or down. Momentum 65
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Columbus McKinnon hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Columbus McKinnon from the perspective of Columbus McKinnon response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Columbus McKinnon on the next trading day is expected to be 22.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.52 and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.00. Columbus McKinnon after-hype prediction price | USD 21.26 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Columbus McKinnon to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Columbus Stock, please use our How to Invest in Columbus McKinnon guide.Columbus McKinnon Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Columbus price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Columbus using various technical indicators. When you analyze Columbus charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Columbus McKinnon Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Columbus McKinnon on the next trading day is expected to be 22.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.52, mean absolute percentage error of 0.39, and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.00.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Columbus Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Columbus McKinnon's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Columbus McKinnon Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Columbus McKinnon | Columbus McKinnon Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Columbus McKinnon Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Columbus McKinnon's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Columbus McKinnon's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 19.10 and 25.74, respectively. We have considered Columbus McKinnon's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Columbus McKinnon stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Columbus McKinnon stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.0146 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5161 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0306 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 31.9956 |
Predictive Modules for Columbus McKinnon
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Columbus McKinnon. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Columbus McKinnon's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Columbus McKinnon After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Columbus McKinnon at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Columbus McKinnon or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Columbus McKinnon, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Columbus McKinnon Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Columbus McKinnon's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Columbus McKinnon's historical news coverage. Columbus McKinnon's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 17.97 and 24.55, respectively. We have considered Columbus McKinnon's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Columbus McKinnon is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Columbus McKinnon is based on 3 months time horizon.
Columbus McKinnon Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Columbus McKinnon is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Columbus McKinnon backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Columbus McKinnon, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.57 | 3.32 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
21.26 | 21.26 | 0.00 |
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Columbus McKinnon Hype Timeline
Columbus McKinnon is currently traded for 21.26. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.15. Columbus is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.57%. %. The volatility of related hype on Columbus McKinnon is about 1286.82%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 21.11. About 93.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.66. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Columbus McKinnon has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.46. The entity last dividend was issued on the 7th of November 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Columbus McKinnon to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Columbus Stock, please use our How to Invest in Columbus McKinnon guide.Columbus McKinnon Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Columbus McKinnon's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Columbus McKinnon's future price movements. Getting to know how Columbus McKinnon's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Columbus McKinnon may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TWI | Titan International | (0.11) | 7 per month | 2.21 | 0.1 | 5.05 | (3.92) | 13.59 | |
| MTW | Manitowoc | 0.18 | 10 per month | 2.26 | 0.11 | 4.54 | (3.72) | 14.96 | |
| KFRC | Kforce Inc | (0.01) | 8 per month | 1.81 | 0.09 | 3.64 | (3.00) | 32.43 | |
| BYRN | Byrna Technologies | (0.41) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 5.19 | (5.40) | 12.95 | |
| CYRX | Cryoport | (0.27) | 19 per month | 3.29 | 0.02 | 4.99 | (4.17) | 18.32 | |
| CODI | Compass Diversified Holdings | (0.01) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 7.26 | (6.87) | 35.68 | |
| SB | Safe Bulkers | 0.05 | 3 per month | 1.01 | 0.13 | 3.34 | (1.72) | 13.45 | |
| EBF | Ennis Inc | (0.85) | 18 per month | 1.03 | 0.08 | 2.20 | (1.87) | 6.77 | |
| AIRO | AIRO Group Holdings | (1.21) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 10.18 | (11.39) | 25.18 | |
| CVLG | Covenant Logistics Group | 0.06 | 11 per month | 1.77 | 0.12 | 4.95 | (2.57) | 9.88 |
Other Forecasting Options for Columbus McKinnon
For every potential investor in Columbus, whether a beginner or expert, Columbus McKinnon's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Columbus Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Columbus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Columbus McKinnon's price trends.Columbus McKinnon Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Columbus McKinnon stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Columbus McKinnon could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Columbus McKinnon by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Columbus McKinnon Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Columbus McKinnon stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Columbus McKinnon shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Columbus McKinnon stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Columbus McKinnon entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Columbus McKinnon Risk Indicators
The analysis of Columbus McKinnon's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Columbus McKinnon's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting columbus stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.32 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.94 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.29 | |||
| Variance | 10.84 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.5 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.76 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.86) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Columbus McKinnon
The number of cover stories for Columbus McKinnon depends on current market conditions and Columbus McKinnon's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Columbus McKinnon is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Columbus McKinnon's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Columbus McKinnon Short Properties
Columbus McKinnon's future price predictability will typically decrease when Columbus McKinnon's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Columbus McKinnon often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Columbus McKinnon's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Columbus McKinnon's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 28.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 53.7 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Columbus McKinnon to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Columbus Stock, please use our How to Invest in Columbus McKinnon guide.You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.
Is Stock space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Columbus McKinnon. If investors know Columbus will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Columbus McKinnon listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Columbus McKinnon is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Columbus that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Columbus McKinnon's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Columbus McKinnon's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Columbus McKinnon's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Columbus McKinnon's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Columbus McKinnon's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Columbus McKinnon is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Columbus McKinnon's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.