Costamare Bulkers Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| CMDB Stock | 18.31 0.54 3.04% |
Costamare Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Costamare Bulkers stock prices and determine the direction of Costamare Bulkers Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Costamare Bulkers' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength momentum indicator of Costamare Bulkers' share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Costamare Bulkers hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Costamare Bulkers Holdings from the perspective of Costamare Bulkers response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Costamare Bulkers Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 18.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.18. Costamare Bulkers after-hype prediction price | USD 17.75 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Costamare Bulkers Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Costamare price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Costamare using various technical indicators. When you analyze Costamare charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Costamare Bulkers Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 7th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Costamare Bulkers Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 18.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31, mean absolute percentage error of 0.19, and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.18.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Costamare Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Costamare Bulkers' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Costamare Bulkers Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Costamare Bulkers | Costamare Bulkers Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Costamare Bulkers Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Costamare Bulkers' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Costamare Bulkers' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 15.60 and 21.19, respectively. We have considered Costamare Bulkers' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Costamare Bulkers stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Costamare Bulkers stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 3.0E-4 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3082 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0192 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 18.185 |
Predictive Modules for Costamare Bulkers
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Costamare Bulkers. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Costamare Bulkers' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Costamare Bulkers After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Costamare Bulkers at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Costamare Bulkers or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Costamare Bulkers, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Costamare Bulkers Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Costamare Bulkers' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Costamare Bulkers' historical news coverage. Costamare Bulkers' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 14.98 and 20.52, respectively. We have considered Costamare Bulkers' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Costamare Bulkers is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Costamare Bulkers is based on 3 months time horizon.
Costamare Bulkers Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Costamare Bulkers is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Costamare Bulkers backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Costamare Bulkers, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.57 | 2.79 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 10 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
18.31 | 17.75 | 0.11 |
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Costamare Bulkers Hype Timeline
Costamare Bulkers is currently traded for 18.31. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.05. Costamare is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 17.75. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.11%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.57%. The volatility of related hype on Costamare Bulkers is about 3000.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 18.36. About 34.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.54. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Costamare Bulkers recorded a loss per share of 4.06. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Costamare Bulkers to cross-verify your projections.Costamare Bulkers Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Costamare Bulkers' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Costamare Bulkers' future price movements. Getting to know how Costamare Bulkers' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Costamare Bulkers may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PANL | Pangaea Logistic | 0.14 | 11 per month | 1.61 | 0.20 | 5.11 | (3.68) | 22.74 | |
| KNOP | KNOT Offshore Partners | 0.1 | 9 per month | 1.15 | 0.09 | 4.31 | (2.13) | 12.63 | |
| HSHP | Himalaya Shipping | (0.34) | 8 per month | 1.86 | 0.19 | 4.63 | (2.90) | 12.50 | |
| ESEA | Euroseas | (0.12) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.77 | (3.78) | 13.57 | |
| FLYX | flyExclusive | (0.07) | 8 per month | 8.38 | 0.01 | 11.96 | (11.97) | 161.87 | |
| NPWR | NET Power | 0.14 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 5.90 | (8.26) | 18.48 | |
| SB | Safe Bulkers | (0.07) | 8 per month | 1.25 | 0.13 | 3.34 | (1.73) | 13.45 | |
| WNC | Wabash National | 0.62 | 10 per month | 1.95 | 0.16 | 5.45 | (3.47) | 16.28 | |
| GASS | StealthGas | 0.63 | 6 per month | 1.04 | 0.10 | 2.36 | (1.91) | 8.25 | |
| AIRJ | Montana Technologies | (0.10) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 13.28 | (8.01) | 31.81 |
Other Forecasting Options for Costamare Bulkers
For every potential investor in Costamare, whether a beginner or expert, Costamare Bulkers' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Costamare Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Costamare. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Costamare Bulkers' price trends.Costamare Bulkers Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Costamare Bulkers stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Costamare Bulkers could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Costamare Bulkers by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Costamare Bulkers Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Costamare Bulkers stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Costamare Bulkers shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Costamare Bulkers stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Costamare Bulkers Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Costamare Bulkers Risk Indicators
The analysis of Costamare Bulkers' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Costamare Bulkers' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting costamare stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.87 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.52 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.73 | |||
| Variance | 7.47 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.5 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.31 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.31) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Costamare Bulkers
The number of cover stories for Costamare Bulkers depends on current market conditions and Costamare Bulkers' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Costamare Bulkers is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Costamare Bulkers' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Costamare Bulkers Short Properties
Costamare Bulkers' future price predictability will typically decrease when Costamare Bulkers' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Costamare Bulkers Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Costamare Bulkers' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Costamare Bulkers' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 24.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 49.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Costamare Bulkers to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Commodity Channel module to use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum.
Is Marine Shipping space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Costamare Bulkers. Projected growth potential of Costamare fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Costamare Bulkers assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Earnings Share (4.06) |
Understanding Costamare Bulkers requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Costamare's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what Costamare Bulkers' is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Costamare Bulkers' price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Costamare Bulkers' intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Costamare Bulkers should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, Costamare Bulkers' trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.