Empresas CMPC Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| CMPC Stock | CLP 1,340 20.00 1.52% |
Empresas Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of today, the value of RSI of Empresas CMPC's share price is approaching 43 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Empresas CMPC, making its price go up or down. Momentum 43
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Empresas CMPC hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Empresas CMPC from the perspective of Empresas CMPC response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Empresas CMPC on the next trading day is expected to be 1,340 with a mean absolute deviation of 22.45 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,347. Empresas CMPC after-hype prediction price | CLP 1340.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Empresas |
Empresas CMPC Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Empresas price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Empresas using various technical indicators. When you analyze Empresas charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Empresas CMPC Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Empresas CMPC on the next trading day is expected to be 1,340 with a mean absolute deviation of 22.45, mean absolute percentage error of 773.44, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,347.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Empresas Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Empresas CMPC's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Empresas CMPC Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Empresas CMPC | Empresas CMPC Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Empresas CMPC Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Empresas CMPC's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Empresas CMPC's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1,338 and 1,342, respectively. We have considered Empresas CMPC's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Empresas CMPC stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Empresas CMPC stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.9235 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.6483 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 22.4483 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0162 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1346.9 |
Predictive Modules for Empresas CMPC
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Empresas CMPC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Empresas CMPC After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Empresas CMPC at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Empresas CMPC or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Empresas CMPC, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Empresas CMPC Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Empresas CMPC's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Empresas CMPC's historical news coverage. Empresas CMPC's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1,338 and 1,342, respectively. We have considered Empresas CMPC's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Empresas CMPC is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Empresas CMPC is based on 3 months time horizon.
Empresas CMPC Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Empresas CMPC is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Empresas CMPC backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Empresas CMPC, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.07 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
1,340 | 1,340 | 0.00 |
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Empresas CMPC Hype Timeline
Empresas CMPC is currently traded for 1,340on Chilean Stock Exchange of Chile. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Empresas is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.07%. %. The volatility of related hype on Empresas CMPC is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1,340. About 56.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.51. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Empresas CMPC has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.14. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 321.68. The firm last dividend was issued on the 6th of December 2022. Empresas CMPC had 10:1 split on the 16th of September 2011. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next estimated press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Empresas CMPC to cross-verify your projections.Empresas CMPC Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Empresas CMPC's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Empresas CMPC's future price movements. Getting to know how Empresas CMPC's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Empresas CMPC may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| COPEC | Empresas Copec SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.02 | 0.04 | 2.31 | (1.87) | 6.16 | |
| CENCOSUD | Cencosud | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.42 | (0.03) | 2.82 | (2.67) | 7.61 | |
| FALABELLA | Falabella | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.51 | (2.77) | 6.93 | |
| SQM-B | Sociedad Qumica y | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.97 | 0.05 | 4.39 | (3.11) | 11.55 | |
| CHILE | Banco de Chile | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.17 | 0.05 | 2.71 | (2.23) | 8.07 |
Other Forecasting Options for Empresas CMPC
For every potential investor in Empresas, whether a beginner or expert, Empresas CMPC's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Empresas Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Empresas. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Empresas CMPC's price trends.Empresas CMPC Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Empresas CMPC stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Empresas CMPC could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Empresas CMPC by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Empresas CMPC Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Empresas CMPC stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Empresas CMPC shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Empresas CMPC stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Empresas CMPC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Empresas CMPC Risk Indicators
The analysis of Empresas CMPC's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Empresas CMPC's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting empresas stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.63 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.93 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.02 | |||
| Variance | 4.06 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.86 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.74 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.69) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Empresas CMPC
The number of cover stories for Empresas CMPC depends on current market conditions and Empresas CMPC's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Empresas CMPC is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Empresas CMPC's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in Empresas Stock
Empresas CMPC financial ratios help investors to determine whether Empresas Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Empresas with respect to the benefits of owning Empresas CMPC security.