Contact Energy Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction
| COENF Stock | USD 5.61 0.00 0.00% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Contact Energy Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 5.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.51. Contact Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Contact Energy's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 23rd of January 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of Contact Energy's share price is below 20 suggesting that the pink sheet is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Contact Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Contact Energy Limited from the perspective of Contact Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Contact Energy Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 5.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.51. Contact Energy after-hype prediction price | USD 5.61 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Contact Energy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Contact price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Contact using various technical indicators. When you analyze Contact charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Contact Energy Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Contact Energy Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 5.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.51.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Contact Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Contact Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Contact Energy Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Contact Energy | Contact Energy Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Contact Energy Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Contact Energy's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Contact Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.49 and 7.25, respectively. We have considered Contact Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Contact Energy pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Contact Energy pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.731 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0903 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.016 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.5064 |
Predictive Modules for Contact Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Contact Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Contact Energy After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Contact Energy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Contact Energy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Contact Energy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Contact Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Contact Energy's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Contact Energy's historical news coverage. Contact Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 4.23 and 6.99, respectively. We have considered Contact Energy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Contact Energy is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Contact Energy is based on 3 months time horizon.
Contact Energy Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Contact Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Contact Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Contact Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.07 | 1.38 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 10 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
5.61 | 5.61 | 0.00 |
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Contact Energy Hype Timeline
Contact Energy is currently traded for 5.61. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.02. Contact is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.07%. %. The volatility of related hype on Contact Energy is about 558.7%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.63. About 25.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.77. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Contact Energy last dividend was issued on the 8th of September 2022. The entity had 1:1 split on the 9th of March 2011. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Contact Energy to cross-verify your projections.Contact Energy Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Contact Energy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Contact Energy's future price movements. Getting to know how Contact Energy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Contact Energy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TEPCF | Tohoku Electric Power | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| NPIFF | Northland Power | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 2.54 | (2.56) | 28.86 | |
| ACLTF | ATCO | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.18 | 2.65 | 0.00 | 12.18 | |
| EPWDF | Electric Power Development | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| KYSEF | Kyushu Electric Power | 0.85 | 13 per month | 0.00 | 0.04 | 3.30 | (0.19) | 29.28 | |
| KYSEY | Kyushu Electric Power | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 12.89 | |
| AGQPF | Algonquin Power Utilities | 0.06 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.26) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.19 | |
| ACLLF | Atco | 0.94 | 6 per month | 0.70 | 0.09 | 1.91 | (1.20) | 5.83 | |
| TEPCY | Tohoku Electric Power | 0.62 | 3 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| EDRWY | Electric Power Development | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.60 |
Other Forecasting Options for Contact Energy
For every potential investor in Contact, whether a beginner or expert, Contact Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Contact Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Contact. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Contact Energy's price trends.Contact Energy Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Contact Energy pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Contact Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Contact Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Contact Energy Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Contact Energy pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Contact Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Contact Energy pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Contact Energy Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Contact Energy Risk Indicators
The analysis of Contact Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Contact Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting contact pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.2945 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.31 | |||
| Variance | 1.72 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Contact Energy
The number of cover stories for Contact Energy depends on current market conditions and Contact Energy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Contact Energy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Contact Energy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in Contact Pink Sheet
Contact Energy financial ratios help investors to determine whether Contact Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Contact with respect to the benefits of owning Contact Energy security.