Cofinimmo Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

COFB Stock  EUR 54.90  0.70  1.26%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Cofinimmo SA on the next trading day is expected to be 55.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.64 and the sum of the absolute errors of 38.99. Cofinimmo Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for Cofinimmo is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Cofinimmo SA value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Cofinimmo Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Cofinimmo SA on the next trading day is expected to be 55.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.64, mean absolute percentage error of 0.58, and the sum of the absolute errors of 38.99.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cofinimmo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cofinimmo's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Cofinimmo Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest CofinimmoCofinimmo Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Cofinimmo Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Cofinimmo's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Cofinimmo's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 54.47 and 56.75, respectively. We have considered Cofinimmo's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
54.90
55.61
Expected Value
56.75
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cofinimmo stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cofinimmo stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.5726
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.6392
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0103
SAESum of the absolute errors38.992
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Cofinimmo SA. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Cofinimmo. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Cofinimmo

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cofinimmo SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
53.7654.9056.04
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
49.4168.4769.61
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
54.1158.0261.92
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Cofinimmo

For every potential investor in Cofinimmo, whether a beginner or expert, Cofinimmo's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Cofinimmo Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Cofinimmo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Cofinimmo's price trends.

Cofinimmo Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Cofinimmo stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Cofinimmo could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Cofinimmo by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Cofinimmo SA Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Cofinimmo's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Cofinimmo's current price.

Cofinimmo Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Cofinimmo stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Cofinimmo shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Cofinimmo stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Cofinimmo SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Cofinimmo Risk Indicators

The analysis of Cofinimmo's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Cofinimmo's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cofinimmo stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Cofinimmo

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Cofinimmo position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Cofinimmo will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Cofinimmo Stock

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  0.43CAMB CampinePairCorr
  0.33EKOP Ekopak BVPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Cofinimmo could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Cofinimmo when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Cofinimmo - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Cofinimmo SA to buy it.
The correlation of Cofinimmo is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Cofinimmo moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Cofinimmo SA moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Cofinimmo can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Additional Tools for Cofinimmo Stock Analysis

When running Cofinimmo's price analysis, check to measure Cofinimmo's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cofinimmo is operating at the current time. Most of Cofinimmo's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cofinimmo's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cofinimmo's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cofinimmo to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.