Cogna Educacao Pink Sheet Forward View
| COGNY Stock | USD 0.72 0.05 6.49% |
Cogna Pink Sheet outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Cogna Educacao's share price is below 20 suggesting that the pink sheet is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Cogna Educacao hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Cogna Educacao SA from the perspective of Cogna Educacao response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Cogna Educacao SA on the next trading day is expected to be 0.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.45. Cogna Educacao after-hype prediction price | USD 0.72 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Cogna |
Cogna Educacao Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Cogna price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Cogna using various technical indicators. When you analyze Cogna charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Cogna Educacao Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 10th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Cogna Educacao SA on the next trading day is expected to be 0.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.45.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cogna Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cogna Educacao's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Cogna Educacao Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Cogna Educacao | Cogna Educacao Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Cogna Educacao Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Cogna Educacao's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Cogna Educacao's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 8.49, respectively. We have considered Cogna Educacao's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cogna Educacao pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cogna Educacao pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.4427 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0238 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0365 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.4532 |
Predictive Modules for Cogna Educacao
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cogna Educacao SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Cogna Educacao After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Cogna Educacao at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Cogna Educacao or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Cogna Educacao, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Cogna Educacao Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Cogna Educacao's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Cogna Educacao's historical news coverage. Cogna Educacao's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.04 and 8.61, respectively. We have considered Cogna Educacao's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Cogna Educacao is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Cogna Educacao SA is based on 3 months time horizon.
Cogna Educacao Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Cogna Educacao is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Cogna Educacao backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Cogna Educacao, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.52 | 7.89 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
0.72 | 0.72 | 0.00 |
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Cogna Educacao Hype Timeline
Cogna Educacao SA is currently traded for 0.72. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Cogna is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.52%. %. The volatility of related hype on Cogna Educacao is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.72. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.29. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Cogna Educacao SA recorded a loss per share of 0.04. The entity last dividend was issued on the 29th of November 2019. The firm had 4:1 split on the 22nd of September 2014. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cogna Educacao to cross-verify your projections.Cogna Educacao Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Cogna Educacao's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Cogna Educacao's future price movements. Getting to know how Cogna Educacao's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Cogna Educacao may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| UPBMF | United Plantations Berhad | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.24 | |
| TUFBY | Thai Union Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 31.54 | |
| PGENY | Pigeon Corp ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 3.17 | (9.41) | 30.79 | |
| SHUFF | Shufersal | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 102.05 | |
| GUZOF | Grupo Herdez SAB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.63 | |
| TUFUF | Thai Union Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| SNDVF | Scandinavian Tobacco Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1.42 | 0.00 | 5.64 | |
| KARNF | Kernel Holding SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 14.23 | |
| MRVSY | Minerva SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 7.05 | (7.29) | 30.04 |
Other Forecasting Options for Cogna Educacao
For every potential investor in Cogna, whether a beginner or expert, Cogna Educacao's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Cogna Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Cogna. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Cogna Educacao's price trends.Cogna Educacao Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Cogna Educacao pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Cogna Educacao could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Cogna Educacao by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Cogna Educacao Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Cogna Educacao pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Cogna Educacao shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Cogna Educacao pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Cogna Educacao SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.94 | |||
| Day Median Price | 0.72 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 0.72 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.03) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.05) |
Cogna Educacao Risk Indicators
The analysis of Cogna Educacao's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Cogna Educacao's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cogna pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.22 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 5.68 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 7.58 | |||
| Variance | 57.53 | |||
| Downside Variance | 92.22 | |||
| Semi Variance | 32.3 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (7.45) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Cogna Educacao
The number of cover stories for Cogna Educacao depends on current market conditions and Cogna Educacao's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Cogna Educacao is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Cogna Educacao's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios
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Cogna Educacao Short Properties
Cogna Educacao's future price predictability will typically decrease when Cogna Educacao's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Cogna Educacao SA often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Cogna Educacao's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cogna Educacao's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.9 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4 B |
Additional Tools for Cogna Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Cogna Educacao's price analysis, check to measure Cogna Educacao's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cogna Educacao is operating at the current time. Most of Cogna Educacao's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cogna Educacao's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cogna Educacao's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cogna Educacao to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.