Collegium Pharmaceutical Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| COLL Stock | USD 45.14 1.61 3.44% |
Collegium Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Collegium Pharmaceutical's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Collegium Pharmaceutical's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Collegium Pharmaceutical fundamentals over time.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of Collegium Pharmaceutical's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.132 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.0875 | EPS Estimate Current Year 7.4706 | EPS Estimate Next Year 7.933 | Wall Street Target Price 53.6667 |
Using Collegium Pharmaceutical hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Collegium Pharmaceutical from the perspective of Collegium Pharmaceutical response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Collegium Pharmaceutical using Collegium Pharmaceutical's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Collegium using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Collegium Pharmaceutical's stock price.
Collegium Pharmaceutical Short Interest
An investor who is long Collegium Pharmaceutical may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Collegium Pharmaceutical and may potentially protect profits, hedge Collegium Pharmaceutical with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 37.2405 | Short Percent 0.1816 | Short Ratio 9.39 | Shares Short Prior Month 5.4 M | 50 Day MA 47.3552 |
Collegium Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Collegium Pharmaceutical on the next trading day is expected to be 45.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.72 and the sum of the absolute errors of 44.16.Collegium Pharmaceutical Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Collegium Pharmaceutical's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Collegium. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Collegium can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Collegium Pharmaceutical. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Collegium Pharmaceutical's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Collegium Pharmaceutical.
Collegium Pharmaceutical Implied Volatility | 0.79 |
Collegium Pharmaceutical's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Collegium Pharmaceutical stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Collegium Pharmaceutical's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Collegium Pharmaceutical stock will not fluctuate a lot when Collegium Pharmaceutical's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Collegium Pharmaceutical on the next trading day is expected to be 45.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.72 and the sum of the absolute errors of 44.16. Collegium Pharmaceutical after-hype prediction price | USD 45.19 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Collegium contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Collegium Pharmaceutical will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0494% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Collegium Pharmaceutical trading at USD 45.14, that is roughly USD 0.0223 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Collegium Pharmaceutical's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Collegium Pharmaceutical options at the current volatility level of 0.79%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Collegium Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Collegium Pharmaceutical's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Collegium Pharmaceutical's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Collegium Pharmaceutical stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Collegium Pharmaceutical's open interest, investors have to compare it to Collegium Pharmaceutical's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Collegium Pharmaceutical is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Collegium. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Collegium Pharmaceutical Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Collegium price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Collegium using various technical indicators. When you analyze Collegium charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Collegium Pharmaceutical Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 13th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Collegium Pharmaceutical on the next trading day is expected to be 45.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.72, mean absolute percentage error of 0.88, and the sum of the absolute errors of 44.16.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Collegium Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Collegium Pharmaceutical's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Collegium Pharmaceutical Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Collegium Pharmaceutical | Collegium Pharmaceutical Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Collegium Pharmaceutical Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Collegium Pharmaceutical's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Collegium Pharmaceutical's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 43.13 and 47.36, respectively. We have considered Collegium Pharmaceutical's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Collegium Pharmaceutical stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Collegium Pharmaceutical stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.9879 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0252 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7239 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0155 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 44.1591 |
Predictive Modules for Collegium Pharmaceutical
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Collegium Pharmaceutical. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Collegium Pharmaceutical After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Collegium Pharmaceutical at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Collegium Pharmaceutical or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Collegium Pharmaceutical, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Collegium Pharmaceutical Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Collegium Pharmaceutical's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Collegium Pharmaceutical's historical news coverage. Collegium Pharmaceutical's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 43.09 and 47.29, respectively. We have considered Collegium Pharmaceutical's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Collegium Pharmaceutical is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Collegium Pharmaceutical is based on 3 months time horizon.
Collegium Pharmaceutical Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Collegium Pharmaceutical is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Collegium Pharmaceutical backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Collegium Pharmaceutical, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.01 | 2.12 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 18 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 18 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
45.14 | 45.19 | 0.11 |
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Collegium Pharmaceutical Hype Timeline
Collegium Pharmaceutical is currently traded for 45.14. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Collegium is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 45.19 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price upswing on the next news is projected to be 0.11%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.01%. The volatility of related hype on Collegium Pharmaceutical is about 1098.45%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 45.14. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 631.45 M. Net Income was 69.19 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 667.51 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 18 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Collegium Pharmaceutical to cross-verify your projections.Collegium Pharmaceutical Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Collegium Pharmaceutical's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Collegium Pharmaceutical's future price movements. Getting to know how Collegium Pharmaceutical's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Collegium Pharmaceutical may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AMPH | Amphastar P | (1.04) | 11 per month | 1.96 | 0.07 | 4.12 | (3.18) | 15.04 | |
| DVAX | Dynavax Technologies | 0.05 | 7 per month | 0.44 | 0.13 | 2.76 | (1.46) | 39.08 | |
| CRON | Cronos Group | (0.08) | 8 per month | 2.28 | 0.01 | 3.72 | (3.28) | 21.46 | |
| GDRX | Goodrx Holdings | 0.02 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 3.44 | (5.26) | 15.98 | |
| INVA | Innoviva | (0.16) | 9 per month | 1.14 | 0.03 | 2.29 | (2.40) | 8.53 | |
| PCRX | Pacira BioSciences | (1.70) | 7 per month | 3.43 | (0.01) | 4.50 | (6.29) | 14.20 | |
| MDXG | MiMedx Group | (0.11) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.30) | 3.21 | (4.28) | 10.23 | |
| PLSE | Pulse Biosciences | (0.38) | 10 per month | 2.71 | 0.11 | 7.62 | (5.10) | 52.77 | |
| ATAI | ATAI Life Sciences | 1.86 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 5.77 | (5.54) | 15.30 | |
| NKTR | Nektar Therapeutics | (0.39) | 11 per month | 4.91 | 0.06 | 8.03 | (7.77) | 20.31 |
Other Forecasting Options for Collegium Pharmaceutical
For every potential investor in Collegium, whether a beginner or expert, Collegium Pharmaceutical's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Collegium Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Collegium. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Collegium Pharmaceutical's price trends.Collegium Pharmaceutical Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Collegium Pharmaceutical stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Collegium Pharmaceutical could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Collegium Pharmaceutical by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Collegium Pharmaceutical Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Collegium Pharmaceutical stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Collegium Pharmaceutical shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Collegium Pharmaceutical stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Collegium Pharmaceutical entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 20643.96 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.65) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 45.23 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 45.2 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.89) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.61) |
Collegium Pharmaceutical Risk Indicators
The analysis of Collegium Pharmaceutical's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Collegium Pharmaceutical's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting collegium stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.69 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.17 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.26 | |||
| Variance | 5.11 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.89 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.72 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.69) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Collegium Pharmaceutical
The number of cover stories for Collegium Pharmaceutical depends on current market conditions and Collegium Pharmaceutical's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Collegium Pharmaceutical is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Collegium Pharmaceutical's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Collegium Pharmaceutical Short Properties
Collegium Pharmaceutical's future price predictability will typically decrease when Collegium Pharmaceutical's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Collegium Pharmaceutical often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Collegium Pharmaceutical's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Collegium Pharmaceutical's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 40.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 162.8 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Collegium Pharmaceutical to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Collegium Stock please use our How to buy in Collegium Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.
Is Pharmaceuticals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Collegium Pharmaceutical. Projected growth potential of Collegium fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Collegium Pharmaceutical assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.132 | Earnings Share 1.63 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.314 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Collegium Pharmaceutical is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Collegium that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Collegium Pharmaceutical's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Collegium Pharmaceutical's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Collegium Pharmaceutical's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Collegium Pharmaceutical's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Collegium Pharmaceutical's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Collegium Pharmaceutical should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Meanwhile, Collegium Pharmaceutical's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.