Com7 PCL Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

COM7 Stock  THB 22.00  0.70  3.08%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Com7 PCL on the next trading day is expected to be 22.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45 and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.88. Com7 Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Com7 PCL simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Com7 PCL are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Com7 PCL prices get older.

Com7 PCL Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Com7 PCL on the next trading day is expected to be 22.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45, mean absolute percentage error of 0.33, and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.88.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Com7 Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Com7 PCL's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Com7 PCL Stock Forecast Pattern

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Com7 PCL Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Com7 PCL's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Com7 PCL's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 19.77 and 24.41, respectively. We have considered Com7 PCL's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
22.00
22.09
Expected Value
24.41
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Com7 PCL stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Com7 PCL stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.177
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.1485
MADMean absolute deviation0.448
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0177
SAESum of the absolute errors26.879
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Com7 PCL forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Com7 PCL observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Com7 PCL

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Com7 PCL. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
19.6822.0024.32
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
19.5921.9124.23
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
21.1624.7928.43
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Com7 PCL

For every potential investor in Com7, whether a beginner or expert, Com7 PCL's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Com7 Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Com7. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Com7 PCL's price trends.

Com7 PCL Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Com7 PCL stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Com7 PCL could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Com7 PCL by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Com7 PCL Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Com7 PCL's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Com7 PCL's current price.

Com7 PCL Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Com7 PCL stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Com7 PCL shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Com7 PCL stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Com7 PCL entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Com7 PCL Risk Indicators

The analysis of Com7 PCL's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Com7 PCL's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting com7 stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Com7 Stock

Com7 PCL financial ratios help investors to determine whether Com7 Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Com7 with respect to the benefits of owning Com7 PCL security.