Commerzbank Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| COMMB Stock | 13,370 350.00 2.69% |
Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Commerzbank hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Commerzbank AG from the perspective of Commerzbank response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Commerzbank AG on the next trading day is expected to be 13,370 with a mean absolute deviation of 243.61 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14,860. Commerzbank after-hype prediction price | HUF 13370.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Commerzbank |
Commerzbank Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Commerzbank price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Commerzbank using various technical indicators. When you analyze Commerzbank charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Commerzbank Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Commerzbank AG on the next trading day is expected to be 13,370 with a mean absolute deviation of 243.61, mean absolute percentage error of 110,558, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14,860.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Commerzbank Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Commerzbank's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Commerzbank Stock Forecast Pattern
Commerzbank Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Commerzbank's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Commerzbank's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13,368 and 13,372, respectively. We have considered Commerzbank's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Commerzbank stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Commerzbank stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 129.7238 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 19.0164 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 243.6066 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0189 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 14860.0 |
Predictive Modules for Commerzbank
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Commerzbank AG. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Commerzbank. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Commerzbank's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Commerzbank's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Commerzbank AG.Commerzbank Estimiated After-Hype Price Prediction Volatility
As far as predicting the price of Commerzbank at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Commerzbank or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Commerzbank, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Commerzbank Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Commerzbank is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Commerzbank backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Commerzbank, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.26 | 2.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
13,370 | 13,370 | 0.00 |
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Commerzbank Hype Timeline
Commerzbank AG is currently traded for 13,370on Budapest Stock Exchange of Hungary. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Commerzbank is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.26%. %. The volatility of related hype on Commerzbank is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 13,370. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next expected press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in bureau of labor statistics.Commerzbank Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Commerzbank's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Commerzbank's future price movements. Getting to know how Commerzbank's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Commerzbank may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NUTEX | Nutex Investments PLC | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 2.96 | (3.09) | 11.49 | |
| MBHJ | Takark Jelzlogbank Nyrt | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 3.19 | (2.63) | 9.00 | |
| OTP | OTP Bank Nyrt | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.50 | 0.27 | 2.29 | (1.26) | 4.05 | |
| GRANIT | Granit Bank Zrt | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.61 | (2.55) | 8.88 |
Other Forecasting Options for Commerzbank
For every potential investor in Commerzbank, whether a beginner or expert, Commerzbank's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Commerzbank Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Commerzbank. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Commerzbank's price trends.Commerzbank Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Commerzbank stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Commerzbank could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Commerzbank by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Commerzbank Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Commerzbank stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Commerzbank shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Commerzbank stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Commerzbank AG entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.67 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 5.833333 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.03 | |||
| Day Median Price | 13340.0 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 13350.0 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 0.4 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 205.0 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 350.0 |
Commerzbank Risk Indicators
The analysis of Commerzbank's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Commerzbank's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting commerzbank stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.01 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.38 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.78 | |||
| Variance | 7.71 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.69 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.64 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.19) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Commerzbank
The number of cover stories for Commerzbank depends on current market conditions and Commerzbank's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Commerzbank is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Commerzbank's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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