Coty Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| COTY34 Stock | BRL 6.66 0.17 2.62% |
Coty Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Coty stock prices and determine the direction of Coty Inc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Coty's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time the value of rsi of Coty's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Coty hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Coty Inc from the perspective of Coty response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Coty Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 6.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.40. Coty after-hype prediction price | BRL 6.66 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Coty |
Coty Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Coty price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Coty using various technical indicators. When you analyze Coty charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Coty Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 17th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Coty Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 6.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29, mean absolute percentage error of 0.13, and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.40.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Coty Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Coty's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Coty Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Coty | Coty Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Coty Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Coty's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Coty's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.59 and 10.21, respectively. We have considered Coty's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Coty stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Coty stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.0763 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2852 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0344 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 17.3953 |
Predictive Modules for Coty
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Coty Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Coty After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Coty at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Coty or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Coty, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Coty Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Coty's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Coty's historical news coverage. Coty's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 2.88 and 10.44, respectively. We have considered Coty's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Coty is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Coty Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Coty Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Coty is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Coty backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Coty, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.39 | 3.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
6.66 | 6.66 | 0.00 |
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Coty Hype Timeline
Coty Inc is currently traded for 6.66on Sao Paulo Exchange of Brazil. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Coty is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.39%. %. The volatility of related hype on Coty is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6.66. The book value of the company was currently reported as 4.14. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.76. Coty Inc last dividend was issued on the 17th of February 2020. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Coty to cross-verify your projections.Coty Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Coty's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Coty's future price movements. Getting to know how Coty's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Coty may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PGCO34 | The Procter Gamble | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.61 | 0.02 | 2.99 | (3.00) | 7.96 | |
| ULEV34 | Unilever PLC | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.71 | 0.02 | 3.60 | (3.33) | 20.81 | |
| ELCI34 | The Este Lauder | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.75 | 0.11 | 4.88 | (3.13) | 20.03 | |
| COLG34 | Colgate Palmolive | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.18 | 0.13 | 2.97 | (2.16) | 8.96 | |
| KMBB34 | Kimberly Clark | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.11 | (0.02) | 2.09 | (1.89) | 6.39 | |
| CLXC34 | The Clorox | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.26 | 0.07 | 4.69 | (2.34) | 17.35 | |
| COTY34 | Coty Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 5.22 | (6.25) | 27.53 | |
| BOBR4 | Bombril SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.81 | 0.02 | 5.83 | (5.51) | 20.80 |
Other Forecasting Options for Coty
For every potential investor in Coty, whether a beginner or expert, Coty's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Coty Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Coty. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Coty's price trends.Coty Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Coty stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Coty could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Coty by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Coty Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Coty stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Coty shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Coty stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Coty Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Coty Risk Indicators
The analysis of Coty's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Coty's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting coty stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.72 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.97 | |||
| Variance | 15.77 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Coty
The number of cover stories for Coty depends on current market conditions and Coty's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Coty is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Coty's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Coty Stock
When determining whether Coty Inc offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Coty's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Coty Inc Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Coty Inc Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Coty to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.