Catalyst Pharmaceuticals Stock Forward View - 4 Period Moving Average
| CPRX Stock | USD 28.74 0.61 2.17% |
This 4 Period Moving Average projection for Catalyst Pharmaceuticals is fitted to the equity's recent daily closes. Low error metrics relative to the price level indicate the model fits recent trading behavior well. Older observations carry less weight in the current projection as the price series extends. High SAE relative to the price level signals cumulative forecast drift over the evaluation period. The 4 Period Moving Average model projects Catalyst Pharmaceuticals at 28.47 for the next trading day, below the most recent closing price. This forecast is one analytical input among many and should be assessed in the context of broader analysis.
4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 4th of May
Over a 90-day horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average model forecasts Catalyst Pharmaceuticals at 28.47 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.53 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and sum of absolute errors of 30.48 .This represents a tight forecast with good short-term tracking of Catalyst Pharmaceuticals' price movement. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Catalyst Pharmaceuticals | Catalyst Pharmaceuticals Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The projected range for Catalyst Pharmaceuticals reflects the model's ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios for the next trading day. The projected band runs from roughly 26.05 on the downside to about 30.88 on the upside. The wide range indicates elevated uncertainty in short-term projections.
Model Predictive Factors
The table below summarizes the 4 Period Moving Average model's error metrics for Catalyst Pharmaceuticals stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.1176 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1863 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5347 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0212 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 30.48 |
Other Forecasting Options for Catalyst Pharmaceuticals
Fibonacci retracement levels applied to Catalyst Stock price swings identify potential support and resistance zones. Extreme price moves in Catalyst occur more frequently than standard risk models assume. Support and resistance levels derived from Catalyst Pharmaceuticals' historical data identify zones where buying or selling pressure has stalled moves. A volume spike without a corresponding price move signals accumulation or distribution ahead of a directional breakout.Catalyst Pharmaceuticals Related Equities
The peer firms below within the Health Care space frame Catalyst Pharmaceuticals' pricing and running costs in context. Looking at Catalyst Pharmaceuticals' pricing multiples next to these peers shows if the stock trades at a premium or discount. How Catalyst Pharmaceuticals ranks within this group can shift over time as the competitive picture changes. This type of review is most informative when done often to track how positions shift over time.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Catalyst Pharmaceuticals Market Strength Events
Rate of Change and Momentum readings for Catalyst Pharmaceuticals measure the velocity of recent price moves rather than direction alone. These indicators add context to how recent sessions in Catalyst Pharmaceuticals have behaved. These indicators are most informative when viewed alongside Catalyst Pharmaceuticals's volume profile and volatility measures. The Price Action Indicator distills each session's open-high-low-close into a single directional score for Catalyst Pharmaceuticals.
Catalyst Pharmaceuticals Risk Indicators
Standard deviation and variance for Catalyst Pharmaceuticals measure total price dispersion, while semi-deviation isolates only the downside moves. Higher variance relative to sector peers signals that Catalyst Pharmaceuticals' price path has been less predictable over the measured period. Analyzing Catalyst Pharmaceuticals' risk indicators helps explain how recent moves compare with its broader trading range. A narrow gap between mean deviation and standard deviation indicates that Catalyst Pharmaceuticals' return distribution is relatively symmetric.
| Mean Deviation | 1.76 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.05 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.41 | |||
| Variance | 5.83 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.99 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.2 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.83 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Catalyst Pharmaceuticals Short Properties
Reviewing short-oriented indicators for Catalyst Pharmaceuticals is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 127.26 million | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 709.17 million |