Creditwest Faktoring Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

CRDFA Stock  TRY 8.21  0.17  2.11%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Creditwest Faktoring AS on the next trading day is expected to be 8.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.34. Creditwest Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Creditwest Faktoring's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for Creditwest Faktoring is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Creditwest Faktoring AS value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Creditwest Faktoring Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Creditwest Faktoring AS on the next trading day is expected to be 8.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.34.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Creditwest Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Creditwest Faktoring's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Creditwest Faktoring Stock Forecast Pattern

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Creditwest Faktoring Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Creditwest Faktoring's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Creditwest Faktoring's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.84 and 11.94, respectively. We have considered Creditwest Faktoring's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
8.21
8.89
Expected Value
11.94
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Creditwest Faktoring stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Creditwest Faktoring stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.3009
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2023
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0339
SAESum of the absolute errors12.3424
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Creditwest Faktoring AS. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Creditwest Faktoring. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Creditwest Faktoring

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Creditwest Faktoring. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
5.168.2111.26
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
3.186.239.28
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Creditwest Faktoring. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Creditwest Faktoring's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Creditwest Faktoring's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Creditwest Faktoring.

Other Forecasting Options for Creditwest Faktoring

For every potential investor in Creditwest, whether a beginner or expert, Creditwest Faktoring's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Creditwest Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Creditwest. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Creditwest Faktoring's price trends.

Creditwest Faktoring Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Creditwest Faktoring stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Creditwest Faktoring could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Creditwest Faktoring by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Creditwest Faktoring Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Creditwest Faktoring's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Creditwest Faktoring's current price.

Creditwest Faktoring Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Creditwest Faktoring stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Creditwest Faktoring shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Creditwest Faktoring stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Creditwest Faktoring AS entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Creditwest Faktoring Risk Indicators

The analysis of Creditwest Faktoring's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Creditwest Faktoring's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting creditwest stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

Explore Investment Opportunities

Build portfolios using Macroaxis predefined set of investing ideas. Many of Macroaxis investing ideas can easily outperform a given market. Ideas can also be optimized per your risk profile before portfolio origination is invoked. Macroaxis thematic optimization helps investors identify companies most likely to benefit from changes or shifts in various micro-economic or local macro-level trends. Originating optimal thematic portfolios involves aligning investors' personal views, ideas, and beliefs with their actual investments.
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Other Information on Investing in Creditwest Stock

Creditwest Faktoring financial ratios help investors to determine whether Creditwest Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Creditwest with respect to the benefits of owning Creditwest Faktoring security.