Catur Sentosa Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

CSAP Stock  IDR 318.00  2.00  0.63%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Catur Sentosa Adiprana on the next trading day is expected to be 315.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 370.43. Catur Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of now the value of rsi of Catur Sentosa's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Catur Sentosa's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Catur Sentosa Adiprana, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Catur Sentosa hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Catur Sentosa Adiprana from the perspective of Catur Sentosa response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Catur Sentosa Adiprana on the next trading day is expected to be 315.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 370.43.

Catur Sentosa after-hype prediction price

    
  IDR 318.0  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Catur Sentosa to cross-verify your projections.

Catur Sentosa Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Catur price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Catur using various technical indicators. When you analyze Catur charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Triple exponential smoothing for Catur Sentosa - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Catur Sentosa prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Catur Sentosa price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Catur Sentosa Adiprana.

Catur Sentosa Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 4th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Catur Sentosa Adiprana on the next trading day is expected to be 315.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.17, mean absolute percentage error of 116.76, and the sum of the absolute errors of 370.43.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Catur Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Catur Sentosa's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Catur Sentosa Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Catur SentosaCatur Sentosa Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Catur Sentosa Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Catur Sentosa's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Catur Sentosa's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 311.41 and 318.83, respectively. We have considered Catur Sentosa's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
318.00
311.41
Downside
315.12
Expected Value
318.83
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Catur Sentosa stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Catur Sentosa stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 2.1162
MADMean absolute deviation6.1738
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0187
SAESum of the absolute errors370.4254
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Catur Sentosa observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Catur Sentosa Adiprana observations.

Predictive Modules for Catur Sentosa

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Catur Sentosa Adiprana. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
314.29318.00321.71
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
275.17278.88349.80
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
312.94324.73336.53
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Catur Sentosa

For every potential investor in Catur, whether a beginner or expert, Catur Sentosa's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Catur Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Catur. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Catur Sentosa's price trends.

Catur Sentosa Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Catur Sentosa stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Catur Sentosa could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Catur Sentosa by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Catur Sentosa Adiprana Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Catur Sentosa's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Catur Sentosa's current price.

Catur Sentosa Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Catur Sentosa stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Catur Sentosa shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Catur Sentosa stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Catur Sentosa Adiprana entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Catur Sentosa Risk Indicators

The analysis of Catur Sentosa's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Catur Sentosa's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting catur stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!

The Portfolio Prophet is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.

Try AI Portfolio Prophet

Other Information on Investing in Catur Stock

Catur Sentosa financial ratios help investors to determine whether Catur Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Catur with respect to the benefits of owning Catur Sentosa security.