Casio Computer Pink Sheet Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

CSIOY Stock  USD 82.38  0.31  0.38%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Casio Computer Co on the next trading day is expected to be 82.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.00 and the sum of the absolute errors of 59.73. Casio Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Casio Computer's share price is below 20 suggesting that the pink sheet is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Casio Computer's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Casio Computer Co, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Casio Computer hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Casio Computer Co from the perspective of Casio Computer response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Casio Computer Co on the next trading day is expected to be 82.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.00 and the sum of the absolute errors of 59.73.

Casio Computer after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 82.38  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Casio Computer to cross-verify your projections.

Casio Computer Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Casio price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Casio using various technical indicators. When you analyze Casio charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Triple exponential smoothing for Casio Computer - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Casio Computer prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Casio Computer price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Casio Computer.

Casio Computer Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Casio Computer Co on the next trading day is expected to be 82.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.00, mean absolute percentage error of 1.86, and the sum of the absolute errors of 59.73.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Casio Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Casio Computer's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Casio Computer Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

Backtest Casio ComputerCasio Computer Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Casio Computer Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Casio Computer's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Casio Computer's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 80.81 and 84.01, respectively. We have considered Casio Computer's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
82.38
82.41
Expected Value
84.01
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Casio Computer pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Casio Computer pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.2285
MADMean absolute deviation0.9955
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0124
SAESum of the absolute errors59.7276
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Casio Computer observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Casio Computer Co observations.

Predictive Modules for Casio Computer

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Casio Computer. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
80.7882.3883.98
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
70.8772.4790.62
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
79.9682.0384.11
Details

Casio Computer After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Casio Computer at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Casio Computer or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Casio Computer, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Casio Computer Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Casio Computer's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Casio Computer's historical news coverage. Casio Computer's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 80.78 and 83.98, respectively. We have considered Casio Computer's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
82.38
82.38
After-hype Price
83.98
Upside
Casio Computer is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Casio Computer is based on 3 months time horizon.

Casio Computer Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Casio Computer is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Casio Computer backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Casio Computer, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.01 
1.60
 0.00  
 0.00  
4 Events / Month
2 Events / Month
In about 4 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
82.38
82.38
0.00 
3,200  
Notes

Casio Computer Hype Timeline

Casio Computer is currently traded for 82.38. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Casio is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on Casio Computer is about 3809.52%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 82.38. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.43. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Casio Computer has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.12. The entity last dividend was issued on the 29th of September 2022. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 4 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Casio Computer to cross-verify your projections.

Casio Computer Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Casio Computer's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Casio Computer's future price movements. Getting to know how Casio Computer's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Casio Computer may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
AITUYAnritsu 0.05 6 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
PRXXFParadox Interactive AB 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.10) 0.39 (2.35) 12.99 
JVCZYJVC Kenwood Corp 0.05 13 per month 0.00 (0.16) 0.00  0.00  22.57 
AMANFAmano 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
AITUFAnritsu 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
SSLLFSiltronic AG 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.0006) 0.00  0.00  11.75 
CFTLFChinaSoft International 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.27) 0.00 (2.86) 8.11 
QTGPFQt Group Oyj 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.22) 0.00 (2.76) 17.56 
MIXIFmixi Inc 0.05 4 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
VAIAFVaisala Oyj 0.27 2 per month 0.00 (1.91) 0.00  0.00  0.47 

Other Forecasting Options for Casio Computer

For every potential investor in Casio, whether a beginner or expert, Casio Computer's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Casio Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Casio. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Casio Computer's price trends.

Casio Computer Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Casio Computer pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Casio Computer could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Casio Computer by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Casio Computer Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Casio Computer pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Casio Computer shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Casio Computer pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Casio Computer Co entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Casio Computer Risk Indicators

The analysis of Casio Computer's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Casio Computer's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting casio pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Casio Computer

The number of cover stories for Casio Computer depends on current market conditions and Casio Computer's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Casio Computer is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Casio Computer's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Casio Computer Short Properties

Casio Computer's future price predictability will typically decrease when Casio Computer's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Casio Computer Co often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Casio Computer's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Casio Computer's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding24.3 M
Cash And Short Term Investments135.1 B

Additional Tools for Casio Pink Sheet Analysis

When running Casio Computer's price analysis, check to measure Casio Computer's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Casio Computer is operating at the current time. Most of Casio Computer's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Casio Computer's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Casio Computer's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Casio Computer to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.