CSL Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| CSJ Stock | EUR 103.90 1.94 1.83% |
CSL Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of CSL's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 3rd of February 2026, The RSI of CSL's share price is at 55 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling CSL, making its price go up or down. Momentum 55
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.333 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.049 |
Using CSL hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of CSL Limited from the perspective of CSL response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of CSL Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 104.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 65.73. CSL after-hype prediction price | EUR 103.91 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
CSL |
CSL Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine CSL price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for CSL using various technical indicators. When you analyze CSL charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
CSL Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of CSL Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 104.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.08, mean absolute percentage error of 1.78, and the sum of the absolute errors of 65.73.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CSL Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CSL's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
CSL Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest CSL | CSL Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
CSL Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting CSL's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CSL's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 102.60 and 105.43, respectively. We have considered CSL's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CSL stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CSL stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.6878 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1219 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.0775 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0107 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 65.7304 |
Predictive Modules for CSL
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CSL Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.CSL After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of CSL at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in CSL or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of CSL, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
CSL Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting CSL's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on CSL's historical news coverage. CSL's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 102.50 and 105.32, respectively. We have considered CSL's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
CSL is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of CSL Limited is based on 3 months time horizon.
CSL Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as CSL is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading CSL backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with CSL, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.11 | 1.41 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 6 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
103.90 | 103.91 | 0.01 |
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CSL Hype Timeline
CSL Limited is currently traded for 103.90on Frankfurt Exchange of Germany. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. CSL is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 103.91 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price rise on the next news is forecasted to be 0.01%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.11%. The volatility of related hype on CSL is about 5640.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 103.90. The company reported the revenue of 15.43 B. Net Income was 3 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 8.08 B. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CSL to cross-verify your projections.CSL Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to CSL's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict CSL's future price movements. Getting to know how CSL's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how CSL may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| XSFA | SENECA FOODS A | 1.00 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.88 | (3.89) | 13.36 | |
| ZFI1 | ZURICH INSURANCE GROUP | 0.20 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 1.35 | (1.34) | 7.13 | |
| CJH | CanSino Biologics | (0.21) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 4.29 | (4.04) | 13.55 | |
| T4H | TreeHouse Foods | 0.20 | 9 per month | 1.19 | 0.09 | 2.00 | (1.96) | 28.09 | |
| WSV2 | VIENNA INSURANCE GR | 0.60 | 1 per month | 0.86 | 0.23 | 6.44 | (2.21) | 11.82 | |
| 2LH | MOVIE GAMES SA | (0.09) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 4.59 | (5.82) | 15.43 | |
| U0K | Fidelis Insurance Holdings | (0.30) | 4 per month | 1.14 | (0) | 2.00 | (1.94) | 5.45 | |
| SC3 | ScanSource | (1.60) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.03 | (4.52) | 10.18 |
Other Forecasting Options for CSL
For every potential investor in CSL, whether a beginner or expert, CSL's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CSL Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CSL. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CSL's price trends.CSL Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CSL stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CSL could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CSL by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
CSL Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CSL stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CSL shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CSL stock market strength indicators, traders can identify CSL Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 4.46 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (1.14) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 104.75 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 104.47 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 0.0061 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.82) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.94) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 55.95 |
CSL Risk Indicators
The analysis of CSL's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CSL's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting csl stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.46 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.41 | |||
| Variance | 5.82 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for CSL
The number of cover stories for CSL depends on current market conditions and CSL's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that CSL is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about CSL's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in CSL Stock
CSL financial ratios help investors to determine whether CSL Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in CSL with respect to the benefits of owning CSL security.