Centara Hotels Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

CTARAF Stock  THB 4.58  0.02  0.43%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Centara Hotels Resorts on the next trading day is expected to be 4.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.30 and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.24. Centara Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Centara Hotels stock prices and determine the direction of Centara Hotels Resorts's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Centara Hotels' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Centara Hotels price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Centara Hotels Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 3rd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Centara Hotels Resorts on the next trading day is expected to be 4.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.30, mean absolute percentage error of 0.66, and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.24.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Centara Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Centara Hotels' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Centara Hotels Stock Forecast Pattern

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Centara Hotels Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Centara Hotels' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Centara Hotels' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.05 and 182.47, respectively. We have considered Centara Hotels' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
4.58
4.29
Expected Value
182.47
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Centara Hotels stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Centara Hotels stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.6914
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2991
MAPEMean absolute percentage error9.223372036854776E14
SAESum of the absolute errors18.244
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Centara Hotels Resorts historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Centara Hotels

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Centara Hotels Resorts. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.234.58462.58
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.183.54461.54
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Centara Hotels. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Centara Hotels' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Centara Hotels' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Centara Hotels Resorts.

Other Forecasting Options for Centara Hotels

For every potential investor in Centara, whether a beginner or expert, Centara Hotels' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Centara Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Centara. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Centara Hotels' price trends.

Centara Hotels Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Centara Hotels stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Centara Hotels could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Centara Hotels by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Centara Hotels Resorts Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Centara Hotels' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Centara Hotels' current price.

Centara Hotels Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Centara Hotels stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Centara Hotels shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Centara Hotels stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Centara Hotels Resorts entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Centara Hotels Risk Indicators

The analysis of Centara Hotels' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Centara Hotels' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting centara stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Centara Stock

Centara Hotels financial ratios help investors to determine whether Centara Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Centara with respect to the benefits of owning Centara Hotels security.