Catalyst Metals Pink Sheet Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

CTYMF Stock   2.00  0.18  9.89%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Catalyst Metals Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 2.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.06. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast Catalyst Metals' stock prices and determine the direction of Catalyst Metals Limited's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Catalyst Metals' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in population.
  
Catalyst Metals simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Catalyst Metals Limited are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Catalyst Metals prices get older.

Catalyst Metals Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Catalyst Metals Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 2.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.06.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Catalyst Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Catalyst Metals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Catalyst Metals Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

Catalyst Metals Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Catalyst Metals' Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Catalyst Metals' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 7.71, respectively. We have considered Catalyst Metals' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
2.00
2.00
Expected Value
7.71
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Catalyst Metals pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Catalyst Metals pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria111.8118
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.01
MADMean absolute deviation0.0677
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0366
SAESum of the absolute errors4.06
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Catalyst Metals Limited forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Catalyst Metals observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Catalyst Metals

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Catalyst Metals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Other Forecasting Options for Catalyst Metals

For every potential investor in Catalyst, whether a beginner or expert, Catalyst Metals' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Catalyst Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Catalyst. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Catalyst Metals' price trends.

Catalyst Metals Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Catalyst Metals pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Catalyst Metals could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Catalyst Metals by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Catalyst Metals Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Catalyst Metals' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Catalyst Metals' current price.

Catalyst Metals Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Catalyst Metals pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Catalyst Metals shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Catalyst Metals pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Catalyst Metals Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Catalyst Metals Risk Indicators

The analysis of Catalyst Metals' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Catalyst Metals' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting catalyst pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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