Community Bankers Pink Sheet Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing

CTYP Stock  USD 7.25  0.00  0.00%   
Community Pink Sheet outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of today, The relative strength index (RSI) of Community Bankers' share price is at 54 suggesting that the pink sheet is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Community Bankers, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 54

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Community Bankers' future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Community Bankers, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Community Bankers hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Community Bankers from the perspective of Community Bankers response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Community Bankers on the next trading day is expected to be 7.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.68.

Community Bankers after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 7.25  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Community Bankers to cross-verify your projections.

Community Bankers Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Community price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Community using various technical indicators. When you analyze Community charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Community Bankers works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Community Bankers Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 31st of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Community Bankers on the next trading day is expected to be 7.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.68.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Community Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Community Bankers' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Community Bankers Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

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Community Bankers Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Community Bankers' Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Community Bankers' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.36 and 10.14, respectively. We have considered Community Bankers' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
7.25
7.25
Expected Value
10.14
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Community Bankers pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Community Bankers pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0169
MADMean absolute deviation0.0793
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0113
SAESum of the absolute errors4.68
When Community Bankers prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Community Bankers trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Community Bankers observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Community Bankers

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Community Bankers. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Community Bankers' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
4.367.2510.14
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
3.095.988.87
Details

Community Bankers After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Community Bankers at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Community Bankers or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Community Bankers, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Community Bankers Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Community Bankers' pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Community Bankers' historical news coverage. Community Bankers' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 4.36 and 10.14, respectively. We have considered Community Bankers' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
7.25
7.25
After-hype Price
10.14
Upside
Community Bankers is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Community Bankers is based on 3 months time horizon.

Community Bankers Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Community Bankers is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Community Bankers backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Community Bankers, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.29 
2.89
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
In 5 to 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
7.25
7.25
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Community Bankers Hype Timeline

Community Bankers is currently traded for 7.25. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Community is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.29%. %. The volatility of related hype on Community Bankers is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 7.25. The company last dividend was issued on the 30th of December 2022. Community Bankers had 5:1 split on the 11th of February 2003. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in 5 to 10 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Community Bankers to cross-verify your projections.

Community Bankers Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Community Bankers' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Community Bankers' future price movements. Getting to know how Community Bankers' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Community Bankers may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
UNTNUnited Tennessee Bankshares 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.14  1.53 (0.10) 5.31 
TCNBTown Center Bank 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.09) 1.33 (1.15) 4.98 
TVLFTennessee Valley Financial 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.05  0.46 (0.12) 7.60 
FLEWFleetwood Bank Pa 0.00 0 per month 3.14  0.06  9.70 (3.00) 43.13 
HRBKHarbor Bankshares 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.12) 1.60 (5.00) 19.98 
CIBNCommunity Investors Bancorp 0.00 0 per month 1.87  0.01  4.32 (3.93) 23.66 
MSBBMercer Bancorp 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.08  1.23 (0.31) 2.60 
GOVBGouverneur Bancorp 0.00 0 per month 0.20  0.21  3.52 (0.87) 10.76 
FIDSFNB Inc 0.00 0 per month 1.18  0.12  4.66 (3.75) 12.29 
JTNBJTNB Bancorp 0.00 0 per month 1.08  0.03  2.57 (2.56) 6.68 

Other Forecasting Options for Community Bankers

For every potential investor in Community, whether a beginner or expert, Community Bankers' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Community Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Community. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Community Bankers' price trends.

Community Bankers Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Community Bankers pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Community Bankers could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Community Bankers by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Community Bankers Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Community Bankers pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Community Bankers shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Community Bankers pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Community Bankers entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Community Bankers Risk Indicators

The analysis of Community Bankers' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Community Bankers' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting community pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Community Bankers

The number of cover stories for Community Bankers depends on current market conditions and Community Bankers' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Community Bankers is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Community Bankers' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Additional Tools for Community Pink Sheet Analysis

When running Community Bankers' price analysis, check to measure Community Bankers' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Community Bankers is operating at the current time. Most of Community Bankers' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Community Bankers' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Community Bankers' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Community Bankers to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.