Cuhadaroglu Metal Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| CUSAN Stock | TRY 20.90 0.08 0.38% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Cuhadaroglu Metal Sanayi on the next trading day is expected to be 20.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.32. Cuhadaroglu Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Cuhadaroglu Metal's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Cuhadaroglu |
Cuhadaroglu Metal Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Cuhadaroglu Metal Sanayi on the next trading day is expected to be 20.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35, mean absolute percentage error of 0.22, and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.32.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cuhadaroglu Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cuhadaroglu Metal's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Cuhadaroglu Metal Stock Forecast Pattern
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Cuhadaroglu Metal Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Cuhadaroglu Metal's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Cuhadaroglu Metal's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.64 and 23.21, respectively. We have considered Cuhadaroglu Metal's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cuhadaroglu Metal stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cuhadaroglu Metal stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.5887 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3495 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0173 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 21.3179 |
Predictive Modules for Cuhadaroglu Metal
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cuhadaroglu Metal Sanayi. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Cuhadaroglu Metal
For every potential investor in Cuhadaroglu, whether a beginner or expert, Cuhadaroglu Metal's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Cuhadaroglu Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Cuhadaroglu. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Cuhadaroglu Metal's price trends.Cuhadaroglu Metal Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Cuhadaroglu Metal stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Cuhadaroglu Metal could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Cuhadaroglu Metal by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Cuhadaroglu Metal Sanayi Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Cuhadaroglu Metal's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Cuhadaroglu Metal's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Cuhadaroglu Metal Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Cuhadaroglu Metal stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Cuhadaroglu Metal shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Cuhadaroglu Metal stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Cuhadaroglu Metal Sanayi entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Cuhadaroglu Metal Risk Indicators
The analysis of Cuhadaroglu Metal's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Cuhadaroglu Metal's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cuhadaroglu stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.7 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.13 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.3 | |||
| Variance | 5.29 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.97 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.55 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.81) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Other Information on Investing in Cuhadaroglu Stock
Cuhadaroglu Metal financial ratios help investors to determine whether Cuhadaroglu Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Cuhadaroglu with respect to the benefits of owning Cuhadaroglu Metal security.