CureVac NV Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| CVAC Stock | USD 4.66 0.00 0.00% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of CureVac NV on the next trading day is expected to be 5.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.37. CureVac Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast CureVac NV stock prices and determine the direction of CureVac NV's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of CureVac NV's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the value of RSI of CureVac NV's share price is approaching 43 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling CureVac NV, making its price go up or down. Momentum 43
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using CureVac NV hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of CureVac NV from the perspective of CureVac NV response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of CureVac NV on the next trading day is expected to be 5.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.37. CureVac NV after-hype prediction price | USD 4.65 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as various price indices. CureVac NV Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine CureVac price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for CureVac using various technical indicators. When you analyze CureVac charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
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| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
CureVac NV Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of CureVac NV on the next trading day is expected to be 5.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.37.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CureVac Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CureVac NV's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
CureVac NV Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest CureVac NV | CureVac NV Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CureVac NV stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CureVac NV stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.2316 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1044 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0216 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.37 |
Predictive Modules for CureVac NV
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CureVac NV. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.CureVac NV After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of CureVac NV at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in CureVac NV or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of CureVac NV, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
CureVac NV Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting CureVac NV's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on CureVac NV's historical news coverage. CureVac NV's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1.98 and 7.32, respectively. We have considered CureVac NV's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
CureVac NV is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of CureVac NV is based on 3 months time horizon.
CureVac NV Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as CureVac NV is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading CureVac NV backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with CureVac NV, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.24 | 2.67 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 4 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 4 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
4.66 | 4.65 | 0.21 |
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CureVac NV Hype Timeline
CureVac NV is currently traded for 4.66. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. CureVac is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 4.65. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.21%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.24%. The volatility of related hype on CureVac NV is about 53400.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.66. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.03. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. CureVac NV has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.07. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 4 days. Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as various price indices.CureVac NV Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to CureVac NV's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict CureVac NV's future price movements. Getting to know how CureVac NV's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how CureVac NV may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NVAX | Novavax | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.62 | 0.05 | 6.10 | (5.06) | 17.41 | |
| NKTR | Nektar Therapeutics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 6.56 | (7.77) | 20.31 | |
| SNDX | Syndax Pharmaceuticals | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.90 | 0.18 | 8.70 | (3.53) | 18.37 | |
| INBX | Inhibrx Biosciences | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.47 | 0.12 | 6.04 | (5.01) | 27.17 | |
| AMLX | Amylyx Pharmaceuticals | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.86 | 0.05 | 8.11 | (4.94) | 15.63 | |
| IMTX | Immatics NV | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.87 | (0) | 7.31 | (6.47) | 30.34 | |
| RLAY | Relay Therapeutics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.01 | 0.03 | 5.60 | (5.31) | 27.25 | |
| ORIC | Oric Pharmaceuticals | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 6.63 | (4.36) | 15.07 | |
| ELVN | Enliven Therapeutics | (0.05) | 4 per month | 4.54 | 0.08 | 6.28 | (7.81) | 54.02 | |
| TRML | Tourmaline Bio | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
CureVac NV Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CureVac NV stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CureVac NV could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CureVac NV by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
CureVac NV Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CureVac NV stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CureVac NV shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CureVac NV stock market strength indicators, traders can identify CureVac NV entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
CureVac NV Risk Indicators
The analysis of CureVac NV's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CureVac NV's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting curevac stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.47 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.67 | |||
| Variance | 7.11 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for CureVac NV
The number of cover stories for CureVac NV depends on current market conditions and CureVac NV's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that CureVac NV is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about CureVac NV's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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CureVac NV Short Properties
CureVac NV's future price predictability will typically decrease when CureVac NV's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of CureVac NV often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential CureVac NV's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CureVac NV's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 225.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 485.4 M |
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as various price indices. You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.
Is Stock space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of CureVac NV. If investors know CureVac will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about CureVac NV listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of CureVac NV is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of CureVac that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of CureVac NV's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is CureVac NV's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because CureVac NV's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect CureVac NV's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between CureVac NV's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if CureVac NV is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, CureVac NV's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.