CSPC PHARMACEUTGR Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| CVGU Stock | EUR 2.32 0.02 0.87% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of CSPC PHARMACEUTGR ADR4 on the next trading day is expected to be 2.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.73. CSPC Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of CSPC PHARMACEUTGR's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
CSPC |
CSPC PHARMACEUTGR Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of CSPC PHARMACEUTGR ADR4 on the next trading day is expected to be 2.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.73.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CSPC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CSPC PHARMACEUTGR's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
CSPC PHARMACEUTGR Stock Forecast Pattern
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CSPC PHARMACEUTGR Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting CSPC PHARMACEUTGR's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CSPC PHARMACEUTGR's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 8.25, respectively. We have considered CSPC PHARMACEUTGR's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CSPC PHARMACEUTGR stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CSPC PHARMACEUTGR stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.185 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1103 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0464 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.7283 |
Predictive Modules for CSPC PHARMACEUTGR
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CSPC PHARMACEUTGR ADR4. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of CSPC PHARMACEUTGR's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for CSPC PHARMACEUTGR
For every potential investor in CSPC, whether a beginner or expert, CSPC PHARMACEUTGR's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CSPC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CSPC. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CSPC PHARMACEUTGR's price trends.CSPC PHARMACEUTGR Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CSPC PHARMACEUTGR stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CSPC PHARMACEUTGR could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CSPC PHARMACEUTGR by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
CSPC PHARMACEUTGR ADR4 Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of CSPC PHARMACEUTGR's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of CSPC PHARMACEUTGR's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
CSPC PHARMACEUTGR Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CSPC PHARMACEUTGR stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CSPC PHARMACEUTGR shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CSPC PHARMACEUTGR stock market strength indicators, traders can identify CSPC PHARMACEUTGR ADR4 entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 2.32 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 2.32 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.01 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.02 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 42.28 |
CSPC PHARMACEUTGR Risk Indicators
The analysis of CSPC PHARMACEUTGR's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CSPC PHARMACEUTGR's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cspc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.69 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.46 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.76 | |||
| Variance | 33.15 | |||
| Downside Variance | 27.48 | |||
| Semi Variance | 19.86 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.89) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Other Information on Investing in CSPC Stock
CSPC PHARMACEUTGR financial ratios help investors to determine whether CSPC Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in CSPC with respect to the benefits of owning CSPC PHARMACEUTGR security.