CommerceWest Bank OTC Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| CWBK Stock | USD 37.24 0.02 0.05% |
CommerceWest OTC Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now the value of rsi of CommerceWest Bank's share price is below 20 suggesting that the otc stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using CommerceWest Bank hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of CommerceWest Bank from the perspective of CommerceWest Bank response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of CommerceWest Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 37.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.30. CommerceWest Bank after-hype prediction price | USD 37.24 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as otc price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
CommerceWest |
CommerceWest Bank Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine CommerceWest price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for CommerceWest using various technical indicators. When you analyze CommerceWest charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
CommerceWest Bank Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 13th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of CommerceWest Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 37.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16, mean absolute percentage error of 0.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.30.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CommerceWest OTC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CommerceWest Bank's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
CommerceWest Bank OTC Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest CommerceWest Bank | CommerceWest Bank Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
CommerceWest Bank Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting CommerceWest Bank's OTC Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CommerceWest Bank's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 36.40 and 38.08, respectively. We have considered CommerceWest Bank's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CommerceWest Bank otc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CommerceWest Bank otc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.8797 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0407 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.155 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0043 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.3 |
Predictive Modules for CommerceWest Bank
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CommerceWest Bank. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the otc stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the otc stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.CommerceWest Bank After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of CommerceWest Bank at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in CommerceWest Bank or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of OTC Stock prices, such as prices of CommerceWest Bank, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
CommerceWest Bank Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting CommerceWest Bank's otc stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on CommerceWest Bank's historical news coverage. CommerceWest Bank's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 36.40 and 38.08, respectively. We have considered CommerceWest Bank's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
CommerceWest Bank is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of CommerceWest Bank is based on 3 months time horizon.
CommerceWest Bank OTC Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a OTC Stock such as CommerceWest Bank is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading CommerceWest Bank backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the OTC price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with CommerceWest Bank, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.12 | 0.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
37.24 | 37.24 | 0.00 |
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CommerceWest Bank Hype Timeline
CommerceWest Bank is currently traded for 37.24. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. CommerceWest is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.12%. %. The volatility of related hype on CommerceWest Bank is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 37.24. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.64. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. CommerceWest Bank last dividend was issued on the 15th of December 2022. The entity had 3:2 split on the 24th of September 2004. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CommerceWest Bank to cross-verify your projections.CommerceWest Bank Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to CommerceWest Bank's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict CommerceWest Bank's future price movements. Getting to know how CommerceWest Bank's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how CommerceWest Bank may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SLBK | Skyline Bankshares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.23 | 3.50 | (0.97) | 5.36 | |
| DIMC | Dimeco Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.88 | 0.05 | 1.48 | (1.74) | 7.03 | |
| UBOH | United Bancshares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.09 | 0.07 | 3.47 | (2.42) | 15.52 | |
| CHBH | Croghan Bancshares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.24 | 0.07 | 2.78 | (2.64) | 8.81 | |
| PSBQ | PSB Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.65 | 0.07 | 1.87 | (1.52) | 4.74 | |
| MPCB | Mountain Pacific Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.00 | (0.05) | 1.63 | (1.67) | 11.11 | |
| FFDF | FFD Financial Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.58 | 0.05 | 2.54 | (1.56) | 7.34 | |
| SOMC | Southern Michigan Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.59 | (0.01) | 1.80 | (1.11) | 5.85 | |
| SFDL | Security Federal | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1.20 | (0.48) | 4.77 | |
| FKYS | First Keystone Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.47 | 0.12 | 2.72 | (1.54) | 7.39 |
Other Forecasting Options for CommerceWest Bank
For every potential investor in CommerceWest, whether a beginner or expert, CommerceWest Bank's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CommerceWest OTC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CommerceWest. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CommerceWest Bank's price trends.CommerceWest Bank Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CommerceWest Bank otc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CommerceWest Bank could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CommerceWest Bank by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
CommerceWest Bank Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CommerceWest Bank otc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CommerceWest Bank shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CommerceWest Bank otc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify CommerceWest Bank entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 37.24 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 37.24 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.01 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.02 |
CommerceWest Bank Risk Indicators
The analysis of CommerceWest Bank's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CommerceWest Bank's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting commercewest otc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5028 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.4792 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.8563 | |||
| Variance | 0.7333 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.26 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.2296 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.93) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for CommerceWest Bank
The number of cover stories for CommerceWest Bank depends on current market conditions and CommerceWest Bank's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that CommerceWest Bank is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about CommerceWest Bank's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in CommerceWest OTC Stock
CommerceWest Bank financial ratios help investors to determine whether CommerceWest OTC Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in CommerceWest with respect to the benefits of owning CommerceWest Bank security.