SPDR MSCI ETF Forward View - 8 Period Moving Average
| CWI ETF | USD 39.34 0.47 1.21% |
This 8 Period Moving Average projection for SPDR MSCI is fitted to the equity's recent daily closes. Low error metrics relative to the price level indicate the model fits recent trading behavior well. Older observations carry less weight in the current projection as the price series extends. The 8 Period Moving Average model projects SPDR MSCI at 38.98 for the next trading day, below the most recent closing price. This forecast is one analytical input among many and should be assessed in the context of broader analysis.
8 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 6th of May
Over a 90-day horizon, the 8 Period Moving Average model forecasts SPDR MSCI at 38.98 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.75 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and sum of absolute errors of 39.51 .This represents a very tight forecast — the model closely tracks SPDR MSCI's recent price behavior. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.
ETF Forecast Pattern
| Backtest SPDR MSCI | SPDR MSCI Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This forecast for SPDR MSCI frames the expected trading range using downside and upside bounds rather than a single point target. The forecast band spans 37.60 to 40.36. The moderate spread reflects defined uncertainty around the forecast.
Model Predictive Factors
The table below summarizes the 8 Period Moving Average model's error metrics for SPDR MSCI ETF. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 103.2268 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.005 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7454 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0197 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 39.505 |
Other Forecasting Options for SPDR MSCI
The autocorrelation structure of SPDR MSCI's daily returns reveals whether SPDR exhibits momentum, mean-reversion, or random-walk behavior. Separating these elements distinguishes persistent directional moves from temporary noise in SPDR ETF price data. Stochastic oscillator analysis compares SPDR MSCI's closing price to its range over a given period.SPDR MSCI Related Equities
Sizing up SPDR MSCI against these stocks within the Foreign Large Blend space shows how it compares on key financial measures. Checking SPDR MSCI against peers on P/E, margins, and return on equity helps put its position in context. How SPDR MSCI ranks within this group can shift over time as the competitive picture changes.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
SPDR MSCI Market Strength Events
Rate of Change and Momentum readings for SPDR MSCI measure the velocity of recent price moves rather than direction alone. These indicators add context to how recent sessions in SPDR MSCI have behaved. These indicators are most informative when viewed alongside SPDR MSCI's volume profile and volatility measures.
SPDR MSCI Risk Indicators
Standard deviation and variance for SPDR MSCI measure total price dispersion, while semi-deviation isolates only the downside moves. Higher variance relative to sector peers signals that SPDR MSCI's price path has been less predictable over the measured period. Analyzing SPDR MSCI's risk indicators helps explain how recent moves compare with its broader trading range.
| Mean Deviation | 1.0 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.27 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.36 | |||
| Variance | 1.84 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.86 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.61 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.03 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.