Carillon Chartwell Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

Carillon Chartwell Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Carillon price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Carillon using various technical indicators. When you analyze Carillon charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur. A naive forecasting model for Carillon Chartwell is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Carillon Chartwell Small value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Carillon Chartwell Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Carillon Chartwell Small on the next trading day is expected to be 12.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26, mean absolute percentage error of 0.15, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.95.

Carillon Chartwell Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Carillon Chartwell Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Carillon Chartwell mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Carillon Chartwell mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Carillon Chartwell Small. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Carillon Chartwell. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Carillon Chartwell

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Carillon Chartwell Small. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 9.97 13.53 17.09 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 9.39 12.95 16.51 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 9.40 12.12 14.85 Details

Carillon Chartwell After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

Carillon Chartwell Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

Carillon Chartwell Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis

Carillon Chartwell Hype Timeline

Carillon Chartwell Small is currently traded for 13.53. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -5.0. Carillon is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.64%. %. The volatility of related hype on Carillon Chartwell is about 45.84%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 8.53. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next anticipated press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Carillon Chartwell to cross-verify your projections.

Carillon Chartwell Related Hype Analysis

Other Forecasting Options for Carillon Chartwell

For every potential investor in Carillon, whether a beginner or expert, Carillon Chartwell's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Carillon Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Carillon. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Carillon Chartwell's price trends.

Carillon Chartwell Related Equities

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