Digitalbox PLC Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| DBOX Stock | 4.40 0.25 5.38% |
Digitalbox Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Digitalbox PLC's share price is below 30 at the present time suggesting that the stock is becoming oversold or undervalued. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Digitalbox PLC, making its price go up or down. Momentum 29
Sell Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.39 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.0004 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.0049 | Wall Street Target Price 10 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.12 |
Using Digitalbox PLC hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Digitalbox PLC from the perspective of Digitalbox PLC response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Digitalbox PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 4.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.35. Digitalbox PLC after-hype prediction price | GBX 4.4 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Digitalbox |
Digitalbox PLC Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Digitalbox price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Digitalbox using various technical indicators. When you analyze Digitalbox charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Digitalbox PLC Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Digitalbox PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 4.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.35.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Digitalbox Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Digitalbox PLC's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Digitalbox PLC Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Digitalbox PLC | Digitalbox PLC Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Digitalbox PLC Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Digitalbox PLC's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Digitalbox PLC's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.10 and 6.70, respectively. We have considered Digitalbox PLC's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Digitalbox PLC stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Digitalbox PLC stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.4153 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 8.0E-4 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0221 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0049 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.35 |
Predictive Modules for Digitalbox PLC
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Digitalbox PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Digitalbox PLC After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Digitalbox PLC at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Digitalbox PLC or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Digitalbox PLC, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Digitalbox PLC Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Digitalbox PLC's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Digitalbox PLC's historical news coverage. Digitalbox PLC's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 2.10 and 6.70, respectively. We have considered Digitalbox PLC's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Digitalbox PLC is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Digitalbox PLC is based on 3 months time horizon.
Digitalbox PLC Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Digitalbox PLC is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Digitalbox PLC backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Digitalbox PLC, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.01 | 2.30 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 5 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
4.40 | 4.40 | 0.00 |
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Digitalbox PLC Hype Timeline
Digitalbox PLC is currently traded for 4.40on London Exchange of UK. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.01. Digitalbox is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on Digitalbox PLC is about 164.45%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.39. About 58.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.75. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Digitalbox PLC had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 125:2500 split on the 28th of February 2019. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Digitalbox PLC to cross-verify your projections.Digitalbox PLC Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Digitalbox PLC's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Digitalbox PLC's future price movements. Getting to know how Digitalbox PLC's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Digitalbox PLC may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| JUP | Jupiter Fund Management | (4.40) | 6 per month | 0.72 | 0.18 | 2.73 | (1.51) | 8.54 | |
| SSIT | Seraphim Space Investment | (2.92) | 4 per month | 2.75 | 0.17 | 5.83 | (5.93) | 27.76 | |
| BRFI | BlackRock Frontiers Investment | 0.97 | 3 per month | 0.23 | 0.18 | 1.18 | (0.85) | 2.56 | |
| DFIB | Dairy Farm International | 0.00 | 1 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| IPX | Impax Asset Management | (2.20) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 3.30 | (3.69) | 13.65 | |
| ARR | Aurora Investment Trust | (1.30) | 8 per month | 0.76 | 0.08 | 1.57 | (1.28) | 3.56 | |
| 0R8Q | Coor Service Management | 0.06 | 4 per month | 1.72 | (0) | 3.16 | (2.88) | 10.70 |
Other Forecasting Options for Digitalbox PLC
For every potential investor in Digitalbox, whether a beginner or expert, Digitalbox PLC's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Digitalbox Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Digitalbox. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Digitalbox PLC's price trends.Digitalbox PLC Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Digitalbox PLC stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Digitalbox PLC could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Digitalbox PLC by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Digitalbox PLC Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Digitalbox PLC stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Digitalbox PLC shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Digitalbox PLC stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Digitalbox PLC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Digitalbox PLC Risk Indicators
The analysis of Digitalbox PLC's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Digitalbox PLC's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting digitalbox stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.4803 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.21 | |||
| Variance | 4.89 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Digitalbox PLC
The number of cover stories for Digitalbox PLC depends on current market conditions and Digitalbox PLC's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Digitalbox PLC is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Digitalbox PLC's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Digitalbox PLC Short Properties
Digitalbox PLC's future price predictability will typically decrease when Digitalbox PLC's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Digitalbox PLC often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Digitalbox PLC's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Digitalbox PLC's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 117.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.1 M |
Additional Tools for Digitalbox Stock Analysis
When running Digitalbox PLC's price analysis, check to measure Digitalbox PLC's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Digitalbox PLC is operating at the current time. Most of Digitalbox PLC's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Digitalbox PLC's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Digitalbox PLC's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Digitalbox PLC to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.