Journey Medical Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| DERM Stock | USD 8.36 0.09 1.07% |
Journey Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Journey Medical's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Journey Medical's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Journey Medical fundamentals over time.
As of now, The RSI of Journey Medical's share price is at 50 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Journey Medical, making its price go up or down. Momentum 50
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.0525 | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.48) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.2525 | Wall Street Target Price 13.5 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.04) |
Using Journey Medical hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Journey Medical Corp from the perspective of Journey Medical response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Journey Medical Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 8.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.66. Journey Medical after-hype prediction price | USD 8.36 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Journey Medical to cross-verify your projections. Journey Medical Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Journey price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Journey using various technical indicators. When you analyze Journey charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Journey Medical Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Journey Medical Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 8.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23, mean absolute percentage error of 0.1, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.66.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Journey Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Journey Medical's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Journey Medical Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Journey Medical | Journey Medical Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Journey Medical Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Journey Medical's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Journey Medical's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.71 and 12.05, respectively. We have considered Journey Medical's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Journey Medical stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Journey Medical stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0507 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2316 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0288 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 13.6639 |
Predictive Modules for Journey Medical
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Journey Medical Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Journey Medical After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Journey Medical at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Journey Medical or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Journey Medical, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Journey Medical Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Journey Medical's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Journey Medical's historical news coverage. Journey Medical's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 4.65 and 12.07, respectively. We have considered Journey Medical's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Journey Medical is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Journey Medical Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Journey Medical Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Journey Medical is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Journey Medical backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Journey Medical, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 3.67 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 10 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
8.36 | 8.36 | 0.00 |
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Journey Medical Hype Timeline
Journey Medical Corp is currently traded for 8.36. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Journey is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.05%. %. The volatility of related hype on Journey Medical is about 2050.28%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 8.35. About 24.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.35. Journey Medical Corp had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Journey Medical to cross-verify your projections.Journey Medical Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Journey Medical's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Journey Medical's future price movements. Getting to know how Journey Medical's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Journey Medical may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| OGI | OrganiGram Holdings | 0.16 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 7.65 | (5.06) | 26.45 | |
| RNAC | Cartesian Therapeutics | (0.64) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 7.26 | (8.01) | 28.90 | |
| SXTC | China SXT Pharmaceuticals | (0.07) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 16.90 | (31.00) | 106.52 | |
| FENC | Fennec Pharmaceuticals | (1.15) | 15 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 4.19 | (4.94) | 17.84 | |
| HSDT | Helius Medical Technologies | (0.50) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 11.43 | (11.78) | 27.63 | |
| OBIO | Orchestra BioMed Holdings | 0.37 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 10.17 | (6.20) | 19.34 | |
| IVA | Inventiva Sa | (0.32) | 9 per month | 6.89 | (0.01) | 9.41 | (7.47) | 23.62 | |
| OSUR | OraSure Technologies | (0.02) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 5.98 | (3.75) | 13.27 | |
| MDWD | Mediwound | 0.39 | 5 per month | 2.67 | (0.01) | 3.79 | (4.40) | 14.07 | |
| NYXH | Nyxoah | (0.01) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 4.44 | (5.42) | 18.99 |
Other Forecasting Options for Journey Medical
For every potential investor in Journey, whether a beginner or expert, Journey Medical's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Journey Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Journey. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Journey Medical's price trends.Journey Medical Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Journey Medical stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Journey Medical could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Journey Medical by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Journey Medical Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Journey Medical stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Journey Medical shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Journey Medical stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Journey Medical Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Journey Medical Risk Indicators
The analysis of Journey Medical's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Journey Medical's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting journey stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.83 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.87 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.72 | |||
| Variance | 13.81 | |||
| Downside Variance | 15.64 | |||
| Semi Variance | 15.01 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.96) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Journey Medical
The number of cover stories for Journey Medical depends on current market conditions and Journey Medical's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Journey Medical is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Journey Medical's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Journey Medical Short Properties
Journey Medical's future price predictability will typically decrease when Journey Medical's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Journey Medical Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Journey Medical's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Journey Medical's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 20.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 20.3 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Journey Medical to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Money Flow Index module to determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators.
Will Biotechnology sector continue expanding? Could Journey diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Journey Medical. Projected growth potential of Journey fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Journey Medical data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Earnings Share (0.35) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.205 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
Understanding Journey Medical Corp requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Journey's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Journey Medical's is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Journey Medical's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Journey Medical's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Journey Medical should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, Journey Medical's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.