VanEck Defense Etf Forecast - Naive Prediction
| DFEN Etf | 61.71 0.61 0.98% |
Momentum 63
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using VanEck Defense hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of VanEck Defense ETF from the perspective of VanEck Defense response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of VanEck Defense ETF on the next trading day is expected to be 61.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.96 and the sum of the absolute errors of 59.44. VanEck Defense after-hype prediction price | EUR 61.71 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
VanEck |
VanEck Defense Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine VanEck price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for VanEck using various technical indicators. When you analyze VanEck charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
VanEck Defense Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of VanEck Defense ETF on the next trading day is expected to be 61.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.96, mean absolute percentage error of 1.44, and the sum of the absolute errors of 59.44.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict VanEck Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that VanEck Defense's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
VanEck Defense Etf Forecast Pattern
VanEck Defense Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting VanEck Defense's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. VanEck Defense's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 59.41 and 62.75, respectively. We have considered VanEck Defense's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of VanEck Defense etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent VanEck Defense etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.3124 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9587 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0178 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 59.4367 |
Predictive Modules for VanEck Defense
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as VanEck Defense ETF. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.VanEck Defense Estimiated After-Hype Price Prediction Volatility
As far as predicting the price of VanEck Defense at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in VanEck Defense or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of VanEck Defense, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
VanEck Defense Etf Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as VanEck Defense is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading VanEck Defense backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with VanEck Defense, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.21 | 1.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
61.71 | 61.71 | 0.00 |
|
VanEck Defense Hype Timeline
VanEck Defense ETF is currently traded for 61.71on Frankfurt Exchange of Germany. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. VanEck is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.21%. %. The volatility of related hype on VanEck Defense is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 61.71. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Check out Investing Opportunities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any etf could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in employment.VanEck Defense Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to VanEck Defense's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict VanEck Defense's future price movements. Getting to know how VanEck Defense's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how VanEck Defense may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| V3ET | VanEck Sustainable European | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.50 | (0.01) | 1.09 | (1.19) | 3.62 | |
| T6ET | VanEck Vectors ETFs | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| VS0L | VanEck Solana ETN | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 6.31 | (6.18) | 19.76 | |
| DFEN | VanEck Defense ETF | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.30 | 0.1 | 2.55 | (2.69) | 8.95 | |
| QUTM | VanEck Quantum Computing | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.71 | (3.54) | 9.54 | |
| VSMA | VanEck Smart Contract | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 5.18 | (5.56) | 16.86 | |
| HY3M | VanEck Vectors UCITS | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.57 | (0.12) | 1.14 | (0.89) | 3.39 | |
| MOGB | VanEck Vectors Morningstar | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.34 | 0.14 | 6.44 | (4.52) | 13.30 | |
| GMVM | VanEck Vectors UCITS | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.97 | (0.03) | 1.76 | (1.67) | 4.25 |
Other Forecasting Options for VanEck Defense
For every potential investor in VanEck, whether a beginner or expert, VanEck Defense's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. VanEck Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in VanEck. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying VanEck Defense's price trends.VanEck Defense Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with VanEck Defense etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of VanEck Defense could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing VanEck Defense by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
VanEck Defense Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how VanEck Defense etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading VanEck Defense shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying VanEck Defense etf market strength indicators, traders can identify VanEck Defense ETF entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
VanEck Defense Risk Indicators
The analysis of VanEck Defense's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in VanEck Defense's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting vaneck etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.31 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.3 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.74 | |||
| Variance | 3.01 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.57 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.69 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.41) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for VanEck Defense
The number of cover stories for VanEck Defense depends on current market conditions and VanEck Defense's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that VanEck Defense is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about VanEck Defense's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios