SPDR Global Etf Forecast - Naive Prediction
| DGT Etf | USD 173.19 0.74 0.43% |
SPDR Etf outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength momentum indicator of SPDR Global's etf price is slightly above 63 suggesting that the etf is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling SPDR, making its price go up or down. Momentum 63
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using SPDR Global hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of SPDR Global Dow from the perspective of SPDR Global response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards SPDR Global using SPDR Global's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards SPDR using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of SPDR Global's stock price.
SPDR Global Implied Volatility | 0.21 |
SPDR Global's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of SPDR Global Dow stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if SPDR Global's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that SPDR Global stock will not fluctuate a lot when SPDR Global's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of SPDR Global Dow on the next trading day is expected to be 174.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.92 and the sum of the absolute errors of 56.26. SPDR Global after-hype prediction price | USD 173.23 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of SPDR Global to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current SPDR contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that SPDR Global Dow will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0131% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With SPDR Global trading at USD 173.19, that is roughly USD 0.0227 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating SPDR Global's daily price movement you should consider acquiring SPDR Global Dow options at the current volatility level of 0.21%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 SPDR Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast SPDR Global's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in SPDR Global's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for SPDR Global stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current SPDR Global's open interest, investors have to compare it to SPDR Global's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of SPDR Global is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in SPDR. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
SPDR Global Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine SPDR price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for SPDR using various technical indicators. When you analyze SPDR charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
SPDR Global Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of SPDR Global Dow on the next trading day is expected to be 174.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.92, mean absolute percentage error of 1.50, and the sum of the absolute errors of 56.26.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict SPDR Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that SPDR Global's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
SPDR Global Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest SPDR Global | SPDR Global Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
SPDR Global Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting SPDR Global's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. SPDR Global's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 173.87 and 175.13, respectively. We have considered SPDR Global's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of SPDR Global etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent SPDR Global etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.5148 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9222 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0056 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 56.2553 |
Predictive Modules for SPDR Global
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as SPDR Global Dow. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.SPDR Global After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of SPDR Global at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in SPDR Global or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of SPDR Global, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
SPDR Global Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting SPDR Global's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on SPDR Global's historical news coverage. SPDR Global's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 172.60 and 173.86, respectively. We have considered SPDR Global's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
SPDR Global is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of SPDR Global Dow is based on 3 months time horizon.
SPDR Global Etf Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as SPDR Global is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading SPDR Global backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with SPDR Global, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.11 | 0.63 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 2 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
173.19 | 173.23 | 0.02 |
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SPDR Global Hype Timeline
On the 29th of January SPDR Global Dow is traded for 173.19. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. SPDR is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 173.23 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 157.5%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 0.02%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.11%. The volatility of related hype on SPDR Global is about 492.19%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 173.20. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of SPDR Global to cross-verify your projections.SPDR Global Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to SPDR Global's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict SPDR Global's future price movements. Getting to know how SPDR Global's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how SPDR Global may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DWX | SPDR SP International | (0.21) | 19 per month | 0.41 | 0.03 | 0.79 | (0.77) | 2.63 | |
| FDV | First Trust Capital | (0.22) | 5 per month | 0.42 | 0.01 | 1.07 | (0.83) | 2.35 | |
| GRPM | Invesco SP MidCap | 0.88 | 5 per month | 0.83 | (0.02) | 2.07 | (1.60) | 3.63 | |
| EFAX | SPDR MSCI EAFE | 0.24 | 3 per month | 0.64 | 0.05 | 1.18 | (1.24) | 2.94 | |
| EIS | iShares MSCI Israel | 0.31 | 4 per month | 0.95 | 0.21 | 1.93 | (1.78) | 5.60 | |
| RSPG | Invesco SP 500 | (0.17) | 8 per month | 1.13 | 0.09 | 2.32 | (1.82) | 5.76 | |
| NTSI | WisdomTree International Efficient | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.58 | 0.04 | 1.22 | (0.96) | 3.30 | |
| DDLS | WisdomTree Dynamic Currency | 0.13 | 1 per month | 0.51 | 0.06 | 1.14 | (0.86) | 3.16 | |
| DFSE | Dimensional Emerging Markets | 0.18 | 3 per month | 0.59 | 0.09 | 1.42 | (1.18) | 3.07 | |
| SIXA | 6 Meridian Mega | 0.14 | 1 per month | 0.41 | 0.01 | 1.00 | (0.88) | 2.45 |
Other Forecasting Options for SPDR Global
For every potential investor in SPDR, whether a beginner or expert, SPDR Global's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. SPDR Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in SPDR. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying SPDR Global's price trends.SPDR Global Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with SPDR Global etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of SPDR Global could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing SPDR Global by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
SPDR Global Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how SPDR Global etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading SPDR Global shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying SPDR Global etf market strength indicators, traders can identify SPDR Global Dow entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
SPDR Global Risk Indicators
The analysis of SPDR Global's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in SPDR Global's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting spdr etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.4979 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.4911 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.6277 | |||
| Variance | 0.394 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.4272 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.2412 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.53) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for SPDR Global
The number of cover stories for SPDR Global depends on current market conditions and SPDR Global's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that SPDR Global is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about SPDR Global's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of SPDR Global to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets.
Investors evaluate SPDR Global Dow using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating SPDR Global's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Analysts utilize numerous techniques to assess fundamental value, seeking to purchase shares when trading prices fall beneath estimated intrinsic worth. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause SPDR Global's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between SPDR Global's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding SPDR Global should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Conversely, SPDR Global's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.