Dreyfus High Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Regression

DHYCX Fund  USD 10.60  0.06  0.56%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Dreyfus High Yield on the next trading day is expected to be 10.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.65. Dreyfus Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Dreyfus High's share price is below 20 suggesting that the mutual fund is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Dreyfus High's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Dreyfus High Yield, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Dreyfus High hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Dreyfus High Yield from the perspective of Dreyfus High response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Dreyfus High Yield on the next trading day is expected to be 10.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.65.

Dreyfus High after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 10.6  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dreyfus High to cross-verify your projections.

Dreyfus High Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Dreyfus price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Dreyfus using various technical indicators. When you analyze Dreyfus charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Dreyfus High price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Dreyfus High Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Dreyfus High Yield on the next trading day is expected to be 10.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.65.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Dreyfus Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Dreyfus High's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Dreyfus High Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Dreyfus HighDreyfus High Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Dreyfus High Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Dreyfus High's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Dreyfus High's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.45 and 10.75, respectively. We have considered Dreyfus High's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
10.60
10.60
Expected Value
10.75
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Dreyfus High mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Dreyfus High mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.1306
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0266
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0025
SAESum of the absolute errors1.6469
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Dreyfus High Yield historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Dreyfus High

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dreyfus High Yield. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Dreyfus High's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
10.4510.6010.75
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
10.4510.6010.75
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
10.5210.6010.69
Details

Dreyfus High After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Dreyfus High at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Dreyfus High or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Dreyfus High, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Dreyfus High Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Dreyfus High's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Dreyfus High's historical news coverage. Dreyfus High's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.45 and 10.75, respectively. We have considered Dreyfus High's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
10.60
10.60
After-hype Price
10.75
Upside
Dreyfus High is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Dreyfus High Yield is based on 3 months time horizon.

Dreyfus High Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Dreyfus High is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Dreyfus High backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Dreyfus High, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.00  
0.15
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
1 Events / Month
In a few days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
10.60
10.60
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Dreyfus High Hype Timeline

Dreyfus High Yield is currently traded for 10.60. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Dreyfus is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.0%. %. The volatility of related hype on Dreyfus High is about 0.71%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.60. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dreyfus High to cross-verify your projections.

Dreyfus High Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Dreyfus High's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Dreyfus High's future price movements. Getting to know how Dreyfus High's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Dreyfus High may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Dreyfus High

For every potential investor in Dreyfus, whether a beginner or expert, Dreyfus High's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Dreyfus Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Dreyfus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Dreyfus High's price trends.

Dreyfus High Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Dreyfus High mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Dreyfus High could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Dreyfus High by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Dreyfus High Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Dreyfus High mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Dreyfus High shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Dreyfus High mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Dreyfus High Yield entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Dreyfus High Risk Indicators

The analysis of Dreyfus High's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Dreyfus High's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting dreyfus mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Dreyfus High

The number of cover stories for Dreyfus High depends on current market conditions and Dreyfus High's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Dreyfus High is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Dreyfus High's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Other Information on Investing in Dreyfus Mutual Fund

Dreyfus High financial ratios help investors to determine whether Dreyfus Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Dreyfus with respect to the benefits of owning Dreyfus High security.
Latest Portfolios
Quick portfolio dashboard that showcases your latest portfolios
Stock Tickers
Use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites
CEOs Directory
Screen CEOs from public companies around the world
Portfolio Comparator
Compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account