SPDR Dow Etf Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

DIA Etf  EUR 418.20  3.25  0.77%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of SPDR Dow Jones on the next trading day is expected to be 418.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.79 and the sum of the absolute errors of 47.28. SPDR Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength momentum indicator of SPDR Dow's share price is below 20 suggesting that the etf is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of SPDR Dow's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of SPDR Dow and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from SPDR Dow's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with SPDR Dow Jones, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using SPDR Dow hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of SPDR Dow Jones from the perspective of SPDR Dow response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of SPDR Dow Jones on the next trading day is expected to be 418.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.79 and the sum of the absolute errors of 47.28.

SPDR Dow after-hype prediction price

    
  EUR 418.2  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of SPDR Dow to cross-verify your projections.

SPDR Dow Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine SPDR price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for SPDR using various technical indicators. When you analyze SPDR charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
SPDR Dow simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for SPDR Dow Jones are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as SPDR Dow Jones prices get older.

SPDR Dow Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of SPDR Dow Jones on the next trading day is expected to be 418.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.79, mean absolute percentage error of 4.17, and the sum of the absolute errors of 47.28.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict SPDR Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that SPDR Dow's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

SPDR Dow Etf Forecast Pattern

Backtest SPDR DowSPDR Dow Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

SPDR Dow Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting SPDR Dow's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. SPDR Dow's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 417.71 and 418.69, respectively. We have considered SPDR Dow's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
418.20
417.71
Downside
418.20
Expected Value
418.69
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of SPDR Dow etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent SPDR Dow etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.7007
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.2297
MADMean absolute deviation0.788
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0019
SAESum of the absolute errors47.28
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting SPDR Dow Jones forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent SPDR Dow observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for SPDR Dow

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as SPDR Dow Jones. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
417.71418.20418.69
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
383.16383.65460.02
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
405.31414.83424.35
Details

SPDR Dow After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of SPDR Dow at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in SPDR Dow or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of SPDR Dow, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

SPDR Dow Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting SPDR Dow's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on SPDR Dow's historical news coverage. SPDR Dow's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 417.71 and 418.69, respectively. We have considered SPDR Dow's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
418.20
417.71
Downside
418.20
After-hype Price
418.69
Upside
SPDR Dow is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of SPDR Dow Jones is based on 3 months time horizon.

SPDR Dow Etf Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as SPDR Dow is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading SPDR Dow backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with SPDR Dow, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.05 
0.49
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
In a few days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
418.20
418.20
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

SPDR Dow Hype Timeline

SPDR Dow Jones is currently traded for 418.20on Euronext Amsterdam of Netherlands. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. SPDR is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.05%. %. The volatility of related hype on SPDR Dow is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 418.20. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 9.11. SPDR Dow Jones had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of SPDR Dow to cross-verify your projections.

SPDR Dow Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to SPDR Dow's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict SPDR Dow's future price movements. Getting to know how SPDR Dow's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how SPDR Dow may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for SPDR Dow

For every potential investor in SPDR, whether a beginner or expert, SPDR Dow's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. SPDR Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in SPDR. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying SPDR Dow's price trends.

SPDR Dow Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with SPDR Dow etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of SPDR Dow could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing SPDR Dow by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

SPDR Dow Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how SPDR Dow etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading SPDR Dow shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying SPDR Dow etf market strength indicators, traders can identify SPDR Dow Jones entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

SPDR Dow Risk Indicators

The analysis of SPDR Dow's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in SPDR Dow's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting spdr etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for SPDR Dow

The number of cover stories for SPDR Dow depends on current market conditions and SPDR Dow's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that SPDR Dow is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about SPDR Dow's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

SPDR Dow Short Properties

SPDR Dow's future price predictability will typically decrease when SPDR Dow's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of SPDR Dow Jones often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential SPDR Dow's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. SPDR Dow's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate5.13
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day32
Average Daily Volume In Three Month8
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield2.10%

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in SPDR Etf

When determining whether SPDR Dow Jones offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of SPDR Dow's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Spdr Dow Jones Etf. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Spdr Dow Jones Etf:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of SPDR Dow to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Stock Screener module to find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook..
Please note, there is a significant difference between SPDR Dow's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if SPDR Dow is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, SPDR Dow's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.