Dreyfus Intermediate Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

Dreyfus Intermediate Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Dreyfus price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Dreyfus using various technical indicators. When you analyze Dreyfus charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur. A naive forecasting model for Dreyfus Intermediate is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Dreyfus Intermediate Municipal value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Dreyfus Intermediate Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Dreyfus Intermediate Municipal on the next trading day is expected to be 12.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0001, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.58.

Dreyfus Intermediate Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Dreyfus Intermediate Price Prediction

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Dreyfus Intermediate Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Dreyfus Intermediate mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Dreyfus Intermediate mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Dreyfus Intermediate Municipal. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Dreyfus Intermediate. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Dreyfus Intermediate

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dreyfus Intermediate. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 12.81 12.90 12.99 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 11.76 11.85 14.19 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 12.76 12.86 12.96 Details

Dreyfus Intermediate After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

Dreyfus Intermediate Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

Dreyfus Intermediate Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis

Dreyfus Intermediate Hype Timeline

Dreyfus Intermediate is currently traded for 12.90. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.01. Dreyfus is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.02%. %. The volatility of related hype on Dreyfus Intermediate is about 16.82%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 12.91. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dreyfus Intermediate to cross-verify your projections.

Dreyfus Intermediate Related Hype Analysis

Other Forecasting Options for Dreyfus Intermediate

For every potential investor in Dreyfus, whether a beginner or expert, Dreyfus Intermediate's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Dreyfus Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Dreyfus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Dreyfus Intermediate's price trends.

Dreyfus Intermediate Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

Dreyfus Intermediate Market Strength Events

Dreyfus Intermediate Risk Indicators

Story Coverage note for Dreyfus Intermediate

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