Delek Energy Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| DK Stock | USD 29.51 0.57 1.97% |
Delek Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Delek Energy's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Delek Energy's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Delek Energy fundamentals over time.
As of now, the relative strength momentum indicator of Delek Energy's share price is approaching 43 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Delek Energy, making its price go up or down. Momentum 43
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 18.7 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.63) | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.0017 | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.90) | Wall Street Target Price 39.7143 |
Using Delek Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Delek Energy from the perspective of Delek Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Delek Energy using Delek Energy's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Delek using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Delek Energy's stock price.
Delek Energy Short Interest
An investor who is long Delek Energy may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Delek Energy and may potentially protect profits, hedge Delek Energy with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 27.2413 | Short Percent 0.2758 | Short Ratio 9.04 | Shares Short Prior Month 10.9 M | 50 Day MA 32.4858 |
Delek Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Delek Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 29.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.68 and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.84.Delek Energy Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Delek Energy's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Delek. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Delek can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Delek Energy. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Delek Energy's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Delek Energy.
Delek Energy Implied Volatility | 0.68 |
Delek Energy's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Delek Energy stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Delek Energy's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Delek Energy stock will not fluctuate a lot when Delek Energy's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Delek Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 29.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.68 and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.84. Delek Energy after-hype prediction price | USD 29.57 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Delek Energy to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Delek contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Delek Energy will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0425% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Delek Energy trading at USD 29.51, that is roughly USD 0.0125 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Delek Energy's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Delek Energy options at the current volatility level of 0.68%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Delek Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Delek Energy's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Delek Energy's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Delek Energy stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Delek Energy's open interest, investors have to compare it to Delek Energy's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Delek Energy is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Delek. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Delek Energy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Delek price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Delek using various technical indicators. When you analyze Delek charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Delek Energy Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Delek Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 29.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.68, mean absolute percentage error of 0.82, and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.84.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Delek Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Delek Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Delek Energy Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Delek Energy | Delek Energy Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Delek Energy Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Delek Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Delek Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 26.97 and 32.05, respectively. We have considered Delek Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Delek Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Delek Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.0773 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.146 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6807 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.02 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 40.84 |
Predictive Modules for Delek Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Delek Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Delek Energy After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Delek Energy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Delek Energy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Delek Energy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Delek Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Delek Energy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Delek Energy's historical news coverage. Delek Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 27.03 and 32.11, respectively. We have considered Delek Energy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Delek Energy is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Delek Energy is based on 3 months time horizon.
Delek Energy Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Delek Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Delek Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Delek Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.40 | 2.54 | 0.06 | 0.24 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
29.51 | 29.57 | 0.20 |
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Delek Energy Hype Timeline
As of February 1, 2026 Delek Energy is listed for 29.51. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.24. Delek is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 29.57 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price upswing on the next news is projected to be 0.2%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.4%. The volatility of related hype on Delek Energy is about 425.46%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 29.75. The company generated the yearly revenue of 11.85 B. Annual Net Loss to common stockholders was (520.9 M) with gross profit of 620.6 M. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Delek Energy to cross-verify your projections.Delek Energy Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Delek Energy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Delek Energy's future price movements. Getting to know how Delek Energy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Delek Energy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CSAN | Cosan SA ADR | (0.09) | 25 per month | 3.15 | 0 | 5.52 | (6.29) | 18.30 | |
| PTEN | Patterson UTI Energy | 0.34 | 8 per month | 2.52 | 0.08 | 5.55 | (4.64) | 10.85 | |
| PARR | Par Pacific Holdings | 0.16 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 5.03 | (4.58) | 15.14 | |
| DKL | Delek Logistics Partners | 0.98 | 8 per month | 1.39 | 0.09 | 2.42 | (1.92) | 10.05 | |
| INSW | International Seaways | 3.86 | 10 per month | 1.31 | 0.14 | 3.52 | (2.42) | 14.71 | |
| GEL | Genesis Energy LP | (0.22) | 9 per month | 1.72 | 0.05 | 3.59 | (2.86) | 8.12 | |
| WKC | World Kinect | 0.28 | 7 per month | 2.02 | 0.01 | 2.94 | (3.35) | 11.51 | |
| NOG | Northern Oil Gas | 0.28 | 7 per month | 2.34 | 0.08 | 5.26 | (3.89) | 10.76 | |
| TRMD | Torm PLC Class | (0.06) | 8 per month | 1.29 | 0.12 | 4.36 | (2.28) | 10.37 | |
| CRGY | Crescent Energy Co | 0.44 | 7 per month | 3.02 | 0.08 | 4.89 | (5.18) | 15.66 |
Other Forecasting Options for Delek Energy
For every potential investor in Delek, whether a beginner or expert, Delek Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Delek Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Delek. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Delek Energy's price trends.Delek Energy Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Delek Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Delek Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Delek Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Delek Energy Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Delek Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Delek Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Delek Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Delek Energy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Delek Energy Risk Indicators
The analysis of Delek Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Delek Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting delek stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.93 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.53 | |||
| Variance | 6.39 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Delek Energy
The number of cover stories for Delek Energy depends on current market conditions and Delek Energy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Delek Energy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Delek Energy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Delek Energy Short Properties
Delek Energy's future price predictability will typically decrease when Delek Energy's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Delek Energy often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Delek Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Delek Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 63.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 735.6 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Delek Energy to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Delek Stock please use our How to buy in Delek Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Anywhere module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.
Is Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Delek Energy. Projected growth potential of Delek fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Delek Energy assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 18.7 | Dividend Share 1.02 | Earnings Share (8.27) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.05) |
Investors evaluate Delek Energy using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Delek Energy's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Delek Energy's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Delek Energy's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Delek Energy should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Conversely, Delek Energy's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.