Dreyfus Natural Mutual Fund Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Dreyfus Natural works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Dreyfus Natural Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Dreyfus Natural Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 51.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.44, mean absolute percentage error of 0.30, and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.74.

Dreyfus Natural Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Dreyfus Natural Price Prediction

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Dreyfus Natural Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Dreyfus Natural mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Dreyfus Natural mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. When Dreyfus Natural Resources prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Dreyfus Natural Resources trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Dreyfus Natural observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Dreyfus Natural

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dreyfus Natural Resources. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 50.32 51.40 52.48 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 49.64 50.72 51.80 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 48.07 50.06 52.05 Details

Other Forecasting Options for Dreyfus Natural

For every potential investor in Dreyfus, whether a beginner or expert, Dreyfus Natural's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Dreyfus Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Dreyfus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Dreyfus Natural's price trends.

Dreyfus Natural Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

Dreyfus Natural Resources Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Dreyfus Natural's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Dreyfus Natural's current price.

Dreyfus Natural Market Strength Events

Dreyfus Natural Risk Indicators

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

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