Delaware Healthcare Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Regression

DLHCX Fund  USD 23.30  0.18  0.78%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Delaware Healthcare Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 24.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.48 and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.68. Delaware Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Delaware Healthcare's mutual fund price is slightly above 63 suggesting that the mutual fund is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Delaware, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 63

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Delaware Healthcare's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Delaware Healthcare Fund, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Delaware Healthcare hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Delaware Healthcare Fund from the perspective of Delaware Healthcare response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Delaware Healthcare Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 24.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.48 and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.68.

Delaware Healthcare after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 23.3  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Delaware Healthcare to cross-verify your projections.

Delaware Healthcare Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Delaware price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Delaware using various technical indicators. When you analyze Delaware charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Delaware Healthcare price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Delaware Healthcare Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Delaware Healthcare Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 24.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.48, mean absolute percentage error of 0.35, and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.68.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Delaware Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Delaware Healthcare's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Delaware Healthcare Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Delaware HealthcareDelaware Healthcare Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Delaware Healthcare Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Delaware Healthcare's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Delaware Healthcare's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 22.75 and 25.42, respectively. We have considered Delaware Healthcare's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
23.30
24.09
Expected Value
25.42
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Delaware Healthcare mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Delaware Healthcare mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.9064
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.4787
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0222
SAESum of the absolute errors29.6767
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Delaware Healthcare Fund historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Delaware Healthcare

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Delaware Healthcare. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Delaware Healthcare's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
21.9723.3024.63
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
20.9724.7526.08
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
22.2922.8923.49
Details

Delaware Healthcare After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Delaware Healthcare at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Delaware Healthcare or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Delaware Healthcare, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Delaware Healthcare Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Delaware Healthcare's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Delaware Healthcare's historical news coverage. Delaware Healthcare's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 21.97 and 24.63, respectively. We have considered Delaware Healthcare's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
23.30
23.30
After-hype Price
24.63
Upside
Delaware Healthcare is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Delaware Healthcare is based on 3 months time horizon.

Delaware Healthcare Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Delaware Healthcare is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Delaware Healthcare backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Delaware Healthcare, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.32 
1.34
  0.73 
  5.26 
3 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
In about 3 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
23.30
23.30
0.00 
58.52  
Notes

Delaware Healthcare Hype Timeline

Delaware Healthcare is currently traded for 23.30. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.73, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 5.26. Delaware is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 58.52%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.32%. %. The volatility of related hype on Delaware Healthcare is about 8.16%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 28.56. The company last dividend was issued on the 5th of December 2019. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 3 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Delaware Healthcare to cross-verify your projections.

Delaware Healthcare Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Delaware Healthcare's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Delaware Healthcare's future price movements. Getting to know how Delaware Healthcare's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Delaware Healthcare may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Delaware Healthcare

For every potential investor in Delaware, whether a beginner or expert, Delaware Healthcare's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Delaware Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Delaware. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Delaware Healthcare's price trends.

Delaware Healthcare Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Delaware Healthcare mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Delaware Healthcare could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Delaware Healthcare by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Delaware Healthcare Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Delaware Healthcare mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Delaware Healthcare shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Delaware Healthcare mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Delaware Healthcare Fund entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Delaware Healthcare Risk Indicators

The analysis of Delaware Healthcare's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Delaware Healthcare's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting delaware mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Delaware Healthcare

The number of cover stories for Delaware Healthcare depends on current market conditions and Delaware Healthcare's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Delaware Healthcare is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Delaware Healthcare's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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Other Information on Investing in Delaware Mutual Fund

Delaware Healthcare financial ratios help investors to determine whether Delaware Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Delaware with respect to the benefits of owning Delaware Healthcare security.
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