Dreyfus Midcap Mutual Fund Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing

Dreyfus Midcap Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Dreyfus price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Dreyfus using various technical indicators. When you analyze Dreyfus charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur. Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Dreyfus Midcap works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Dreyfus Midcap Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Dreyfus Midcap Index on the next trading day is expected to be 27.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.62.

Dreyfus Midcap Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Dreyfus Midcap Price Prediction

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Dreyfus Midcap Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Dreyfus Midcap mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Dreyfus Midcap mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. When Dreyfus Midcap Index prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Dreyfus Midcap Index trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Dreyfus Midcap observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Dreyfus Midcap

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dreyfus Midcap Index. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 26.14 27.06 27.98 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 26.53 27.45 28.37 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 26.85 27.83 28.81 Details

Dreyfus Midcap After-Hype Price Density Analysis

Dreyfus Midcap Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

Dreyfus Midcap Mutual Fund Price Outlook Analysis

Notes

Dreyfus Midcap Hype Timeline

Dreyfus Midcap Index is currently traded for 27.79. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.73, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.06. Dreyfus is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 27.06. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 12.55%. The price reduction on the next news is expected to be -2.63%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.1%. The volatility of related hype on Dreyfus Midcap is about 143.3%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 27.85. The company last dividend was issued on the 24th of March 1970. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dreyfus Midcap to cross-verify your projections.

Dreyfus Midcap Related Hype Analysis

Other Forecasting Options for Dreyfus Midcap

For every potential investor in Dreyfus, whether a beginner or expert, Dreyfus Midcap's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Dreyfus Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Dreyfus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Dreyfus Midcap's price trends.

Dreyfus Midcap Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

Dreyfus Midcap Market Strength Events

Dreyfus Midcap Risk Indicators

Story Coverage note for Dreyfus Midcap

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Other Information on Investing in Dreyfus Mutual Fund