Denison Mines Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| DML Stock | CAD 5.34 0.05 0.93% |
Denison Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Denison Mines' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Denison Mines' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Denison Mines fundamentals over time.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Denison Mines' stock price is about 67 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Denison, making its price go up or down. Momentum 67
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.02) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.14) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.06) | Wall Street Target Price 5.2208 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.02) |
Using Denison Mines hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Denison Mines Corp from the perspective of Denison Mines response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Denison Mines Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 5.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.37. Denison Mines after-hype prediction price | CAD 5.34 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Denison |
Denison Mines Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Denison price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Denison using various technical indicators. When you analyze Denison charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Denison Mines Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Denison Mines Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 5.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.37.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Denison Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Denison Mines' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Denison Mines Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Denison Mines | Denison Mines Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Denison Mines Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Denison Mines' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Denison Mines' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.80 and 9.01, respectively. We have considered Denison Mines' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Denison Mines stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Denison Mines stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0027 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1079 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0274 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.3678 |
Predictive Modules for Denison Mines
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Denison Mines Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Denison Mines After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Denison Mines at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Denison Mines or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Denison Mines, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Denison Mines Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Denison Mines' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Denison Mines' historical news coverage. Denison Mines' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1.56 and 9.12, respectively. We have considered Denison Mines' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Denison Mines is moderately volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Denison Mines Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Denison Mines Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Denison Mines is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Denison Mines backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Denison Mines, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.42 | 3.61 | 0.08 | 0.63 | 1 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | Very soon |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
5.34 | 5.34 | 0.00 |
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Denison Mines Hype Timeline
Denison Mines Corp is currently traded for 5.34on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.08, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.63. Denison is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.42%. %. The volatility of related hype on Denison Mines is about 241.8%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.97. About 67.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.22. Denison Mines Corp had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next expected press release will be very soon. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Denison Mines to cross-verify your projections.Denison Mines Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Denison Mines' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Denison Mines' future price movements. Getting to know how Denison Mines' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Denison Mines may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ATH | Athabasca Oil Corp | (0.20) | 2 per month | 1.98 | 0.1 | 4.12 | (2.93) | 11.98 | |
| TPZ | Topaz Energy Corp | 0.27 | 5 per month | 0.92 | 0.14 | 2.16 | (1.66) | 5.31 | |
| GEI | Gibson Energy | 0.05 | 9 per month | 1.50 | 0.08 | 2.19 | (2.29) | 6.43 | |
| TVE | Tamarack Valley Energy | (0.04) | 7 per month | 1.65 | 0.25 | 3.57 | (2.63) | 8.73 | |
| NVA | NuVista Energy | (0.20) | 1 per month | 0.91 | 0.12 | 2.21 | (1.70) | 6.79 | |
| POU | Paramount Resources | (1.13) | 7 per month | 1.82 | 0.08 | 2.37 | (3.12) | 7.94 | |
| EFR | Energy Fuels | (1.18) | 10 per month | 5.24 | 0.06 | 9.66 | (7.85) | 24.57 | |
| PEY | Peyto ExplorationDevelopment Corp | (0.45) | 6 per month | 1.50 | 0.14 | 3.55 | (2.30) | 10.43 | |
| TVK | Terravest Capital | 17.58 | 2 per month | 2.12 | 0.03 | 3.21 | (3.46) | 27.73 | |
| TWM | Tidewater Midstream and | 0.23 | 3 per month | 2.60 | 0.01 | 5.42 | (4.35) | 14.54 |
Other Forecasting Options for Denison Mines
For every potential investor in Denison, whether a beginner or expert, Denison Mines' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Denison Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Denison. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Denison Mines' price trends.Denison Mines Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Denison Mines stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Denison Mines could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Denison Mines by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Denison Mines Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Denison Mines stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Denison Mines shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Denison Mines stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Denison Mines Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Denison Mines Risk Indicators
The analysis of Denison Mines' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Denison Mines' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting denison stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.76 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.7 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.71 | |||
| Variance | 13.74 | |||
| Downside Variance | 9.75 | |||
| Semi Variance | 7.28 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.32) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Denison Mines
The number of cover stories for Denison Mines depends on current market conditions and Denison Mines' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Denison Mines is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Denison Mines' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Denison Mines Short Properties
Denison Mines' future price predictability will typically decrease when Denison Mines' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Denison Mines Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Denison Mines' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Denison Mines' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 892.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 114.8 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Denison Mines to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Headlines Timeline module to stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity.