Dreyfus Amt-free Mutual Fund Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| DMUAX Fund | USD 13.32 0.01 0.07% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Dreyfus Amt Free Municipal on the next trading day is expected to be 13.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.60. Dreyfus Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Dreyfus Amt-free's share price is at 50 suggesting that the mutual fund is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Dreyfus Amt-free, making its price go up or down. Momentum 50
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Dreyfus Amt-free hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Dreyfus Amt Free Municipal from the perspective of Dreyfus Amt-free response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Dreyfus Amt Free Municipal on the next trading day is expected to be 13.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.60. Dreyfus Amt-free after-hype prediction price | USD 13.32 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Dreyfus |
Dreyfus Amt-free Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Dreyfus price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Dreyfus using various technical indicators. When you analyze Dreyfus charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Dreyfus Amt-free Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Dreyfus Amt Free Municipal on the next trading day is expected to be 13.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0002, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.60.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Dreyfus Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Dreyfus Amt-free's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Dreyfus Amt-free Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Dreyfus Amt-free | Dreyfus Amt-free Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Dreyfus Amt-free Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Dreyfus Amt-free's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Dreyfus Amt-free's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.20 and 13.41, respectively. We have considered Dreyfus Amt-free's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Dreyfus Amt-free mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Dreyfus Amt-free mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -1.0E-4 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0102 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 8.0E-4 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.6042 |
Predictive Modules for Dreyfus Amt-free
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dreyfus Amt Free. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Dreyfus Amt-free After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Dreyfus Amt-free at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Dreyfus Amt-free or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Dreyfus Amt-free, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Dreyfus Amt-free Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Dreyfus Amt-free's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Dreyfus Amt-free's historical news coverage. Dreyfus Amt-free's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 13.21 and 13.43, respectively. We have considered Dreyfus Amt-free's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Dreyfus Amt-free is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Dreyfus Amt Free is based on 3 months time horizon.
Dreyfus Amt-free Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Dreyfus Amt-free is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Dreyfus Amt-free backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Dreyfus Amt-free, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.00 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
13.32 | 13.32 | 0.00 |
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Dreyfus Amt-free Hype Timeline
Dreyfus Amt Free is currently traded for 13.32. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Dreyfus is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.0%. %. The volatility of related hype on Dreyfus Amt-free is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 13.32. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dreyfus Amt-free to cross-verify your projections.Dreyfus Amt-free Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Dreyfus Amt-free's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Dreyfus Amt-free's future price movements. Getting to know how Dreyfus Amt-free's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Dreyfus Amt-free may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PBXCX | Rationalpier 88 Convertible | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.39 | (0.20) | 0.64 | (0.73) | 1.80 | |
| ARBOX | Absolute Convertible Arbitrage | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 0.09 | (0.09) | 3.52 | |
| LCFYX | Lord Abbett Convertible | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.88 | (0.0004) | 1.95 | (1.78) | 3.73 | |
| XNCVX | Allianzgi Convertible Income | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.85 | (0.07) | 1.59 | (1.56) | 4.39 | |
| XAVKX | Advent Claymore Convertible | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 1.13 | (1.55) | 3.76 | |
| GCV | Gabelli Convertible And | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.89 | (0.03) | 1.99 | (1.44) | 4.09 |
Other Forecasting Options for Dreyfus Amt-free
For every potential investor in Dreyfus, whether a beginner or expert, Dreyfus Amt-free's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Dreyfus Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Dreyfus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Dreyfus Amt-free's price trends.Dreyfus Amt-free Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Dreyfus Amt-free mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Dreyfus Amt-free could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Dreyfus Amt-free by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Dreyfus Amt-free Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Dreyfus Amt-free mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Dreyfus Amt-free shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Dreyfus Amt-free mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Dreyfus Amt Free Municipal entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 13.32 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 13.32 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.01) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.01) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 50.06 |
Dreyfus Amt-free Risk Indicators
The analysis of Dreyfus Amt-free's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Dreyfus Amt-free's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting dreyfus mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.0669 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.0578 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.1057 | |||
| Variance | 0.0112 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.0193 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.0033 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.12) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Dreyfus Amt-free
The number of cover stories for Dreyfus Amt-free depends on current market conditions and Dreyfus Amt-free's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Dreyfus Amt-free is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Dreyfus Amt-free's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in Dreyfus Mutual Fund
Dreyfus Amt-free financial ratios help investors to determine whether Dreyfus Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Dreyfus with respect to the benefits of owning Dreyfus Amt-free security.
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