Denali Therapeutics Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| DNLI Stock | USD 19.92 -0.49 -2.40% |
Denali Therapeutics's Polynomial Regression forecast is computed from observed closing prices over the selected horizon. The accuracy statistics below distinguish a well-fitted model from one that is smoothing over meaningful price movement. The fit is assessed against recent observations, so the output reflects the latest available data. When MAPE exceeds 10%, the model's short-term predictive value is significantly reduced. The Polynomial Regression model projects Denali Therapeutics at 19.70 for the next trading day, below the most recent closing price. The Polynomial Regression output reflects statistical model results and is provided for reference purposes.
Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 8th of May
Over a 90-day horizon, the Polynomial Regression model forecasts Denali Therapeutics at 19.70 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.70 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.04 , and sum of absolute errors of 42.81 .This represents a tight forecast with good short-term tracking of Denali Therapeutics' price movement. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Denali Therapeutics | Denali Therapeutics Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This forecast for Denali Therapeutics frames the expected trading range using downside and upside bounds rather than a single point target. The projected band runs from roughly 15.87 on the downside to about 23.53 on the upside. The wide range indicates elevated uncertainty in short-term projections.
Model Predictive Factors
The table below summarizes the Polynomial Regression model's error metrics for Denali Therapeutics stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.8038 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7018 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0351 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 42.8094 |
Other Forecasting Options for Denali Therapeutics
Volume-weighted price analysis for Denali Stock gives heavier weight to price levels where trading activity was highest. Crossovers in the MACD line and signal line identify shifts in Denali momentum before they appear in raw price. Comparing Denali Therapeutics' realized volatility to implied volatility reveals whether the options market expects larger or smaller moves. Readings above 80 or below 20 highlight potential reversal zones in Denali Stock price action.Denali Therapeutics Related Equities
Checking Denali Therapeutics against related firms within the Health Care space reveals where the stock stands among peers. Checking Denali Therapeutics against peers on P/E, margins, and return on equity helps put its position in context. Peer review is most informative when paired with absolute pricing and trend checks.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Denali Therapeutics Market Strength Events
For investors tracking Denali Therapeutics, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of stock behavior. When Rate of Change diverges from price direction, it often signals weakening momentum before a visible reversal in Denali Therapeutics. These metrics are particularly useful when Denali Therapeutics stock shows divergence from broader market trends. These metrics provide additional context for comparing intraday conviction with broader price movement in Denali Therapeutics.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 19.92 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 19.92 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.24 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.49 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 50.68 |
Denali Therapeutics Risk Indicators
Analyzing Denali Therapeutics' basic risk indicators provides a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for denali stock. Expected shortfall estimates the average loss in the worst-case tail scenarios, going beyond what standard deviation alone captures for Denali Therapeutics. Semi-deviation focuses exclusively on returns below the mean, making it a more conservative risk gauge for Denali Therapeutics than full standard deviation. The risk-return trade-off for denali stock becomes clearer when downside and total variance are viewed together.
| Mean Deviation | 2.82 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.81 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.87 | |||
| Variance | 15.0 | |||
| Downside Variance | 15.61 | |||
| Semi Variance | 14.53 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -3.07 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Denali Therapeutics Short Properties
Reviewing short-oriented indicators for Denali Therapeutics is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. This is applicable when the question is whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 175.46 million | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 867.88 million |