DigitalOcean Holdings Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| DOCN Stock | USD 56.13 4.11 6.82% |
DigitalOcean Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although DigitalOcean Holdings' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of DigitalOcean Holdings' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of DigitalOcean Holdings fundamentals over time.
As of today, The relative strength indicator of DigitalOcean Holdings' share price is at 58 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling DigitalOcean Holdings, making its price go up or down. Momentum 58
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 3.537 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.4645 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.0465 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.9471 | Wall Street Target Price 56.1667 |
Using DigitalOcean Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of DigitalOcean Holdings from the perspective of DigitalOcean Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards DigitalOcean Holdings using DigitalOcean Holdings' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards DigitalOcean using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of DigitalOcean Holdings' stock price.
DigitalOcean Holdings Short Interest
An investor who is long DigitalOcean Holdings may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about DigitalOcean Holdings and may potentially protect profits, hedge DigitalOcean Holdings with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 36.7633 | Short Percent 0.1721 | Short Ratio 5.63 | Shares Short Prior Month 9 M | 50 Day MA 48.9168 |
DigitalOcean Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of DigitalOcean Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 56.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.35 and the sum of the absolute errors of 80.86.DigitalOcean Holdings Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to DigitalOcean Holdings' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in DigitalOcean. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding DigitalOcean can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around DigitalOcean Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of DigitalOcean Holdings' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about DigitalOcean Holdings.
DigitalOcean Holdings Implied Volatility | 0.73 |
DigitalOcean Holdings' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of DigitalOcean Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if DigitalOcean Holdings' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that DigitalOcean Holdings stock will not fluctuate a lot when DigitalOcean Holdings' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of DigitalOcean Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 56.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.35 and the sum of the absolute errors of 80.86.
DigitalOcean Holdings after-hype prediction price | USD 56.13 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current DigitalOcean contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that DigitalOcean Holdings will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0456% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With DigitalOcean Holdings trading at USD 56.13, that is roughly USD 0.0256 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating DigitalOcean Holdings' daily price movement you should consider acquiring DigitalOcean Holdings options at the current volatility level of 0.73%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 DigitalOcean Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast DigitalOcean Holdings' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in DigitalOcean Holdings' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for DigitalOcean Holdings stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current DigitalOcean Holdings' open interest, investors have to compare it to DigitalOcean Holdings' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of DigitalOcean Holdings is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in DigitalOcean. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
DigitalOcean Holdings Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine DigitalOcean price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for DigitalOcean using various technical indicators. When you analyze DigitalOcean charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
DigitalOcean Holdings Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of DigitalOcean Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 56.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.35, mean absolute percentage error of 3.53, and the sum of the absolute errors of 80.86.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict DigitalOcean Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that DigitalOcean Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
DigitalOcean Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest DigitalOcean Holdings | DigitalOcean Holdings Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
DigitalOcean Holdings Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting DigitalOcean Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. DigitalOcean Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 52.12 and 60.14, respectively. We have considered DigitalOcean Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of DigitalOcean Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent DigitalOcean Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.5329 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.245 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.3477 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0273 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 80.86 |
Predictive Modules for DigitalOcean Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as DigitalOcean Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of DigitalOcean Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
DigitalOcean Holdings After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of DigitalOcean Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in DigitalOcean Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of DigitalOcean Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
DigitalOcean Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting DigitalOcean Holdings' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on DigitalOcean Holdings' historical news coverage. DigitalOcean Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 52.15 and 60.11, respectively. We have considered DigitalOcean Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
DigitalOcean Holdings is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of DigitalOcean Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
DigitalOcean Holdings Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as DigitalOcean Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading DigitalOcean Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with DigitalOcean Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.58 | 4.01 | 1.96 | 0.03 | 10 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
56.13 | 56.13 | 0.00 |
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DigitalOcean Holdings Hype Timeline
DigitalOcean Holdings is currently traded for 56.13. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 1.96, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. DigitalOcean is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 118.64%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.58%. %. The volatility of related hype on DigitalOcean Holdings is about 7035.09%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 56.16. About 25.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.87. DigitalOcean Holdings had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of DigitalOcean Holdings to cross-verify your projections.DigitalOcean Holdings Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to DigitalOcean Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict DigitalOcean Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how DigitalOcean Holdings' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how DigitalOcean Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DLO | Dlocal | 0.37 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.11 | (3.91) | 11.21 | |
| SPSC | SPS Commerce | 1.59 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.21 | (3.12) | 20.84 | |
| VRNS | Varonis Systems | 0.13 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 4.40 | (3.51) | 49.28 | |
| CLBT | Cellebrite DI | 0.36 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.03 | (4.50) | 25.88 | |
| QLYS | Qualys Inc | (0.86) | 10 per month | 1.82 | 0.01 | 2.52 | (3.12) | 25.56 | |
| TENB | Tenable Holdings | 0.36 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.32) | 2.15 | (3.41) | 9.13 | |
| BOX | Box Inc | 0.55 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 2.76 | (3.64) | 11.36 | |
| BL | Blackline | 0.84 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.73 | (3.99) | 9.51 | |
| WRD | WeRide American Depositary | (0.18) | 23 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 5.14 | (6.66) | 24.73 | |
| PLXS | Plexus Corp | (2.59) | 10 per month | 2.10 | 0.10 | 4.29 | (3.99) | 11.46 |
Other Forecasting Options for DigitalOcean Holdings
For every potential investor in DigitalOcean, whether a beginner or expert, DigitalOcean Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. DigitalOcean Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in DigitalOcean. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying DigitalOcean Holdings' price trends.DigitalOcean Holdings Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with DigitalOcean Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of DigitalOcean Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing DigitalOcean Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
DigitalOcean Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how DigitalOcean Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading DigitalOcean Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying DigitalOcean Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify DigitalOcean Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.93 | |||
| Day Median Price | 56.13 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 56.13 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (2.05) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (4.11) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 58.68 |
DigitalOcean Holdings Risk Indicators
The analysis of DigitalOcean Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in DigitalOcean Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting digitalocean stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.82 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.64 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.97 | |||
| Variance | 15.76 | |||
| Downside Variance | 9.32 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.96 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.32) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for DigitalOcean Holdings
The number of cover stories for DigitalOcean Holdings depends on current market conditions and DigitalOcean Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that DigitalOcean Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about DigitalOcean Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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DigitalOcean Holdings Short Properties
DigitalOcean Holdings' future price predictability will typically decrease when DigitalOcean Holdings' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of DigitalOcean Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential DigitalOcean Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. DigitalOcean Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 94.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 428.4 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of DigitalOcean Holdings to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in DigitalOcean Stock, please use our How to Invest in DigitalOcean Holdings guide.You can also try the Portfolio Anywhere module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.
Will Internet Services & Infrastructure sector continue expanding? Could DigitalOcean diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of DigitalOcean Holdings. Projected growth potential of DigitalOcean fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every DigitalOcean Holdings data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 3.537 | Earnings Share 2.5 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.157 | Return On Assets |
Understanding DigitalOcean Holdings requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects DigitalOcean's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what DigitalOcean Holdings' is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push DigitalOcean Holdings' price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between DigitalOcean Holdings' intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding DigitalOcean Holdings should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, DigitalOcean Holdings' trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.