Delaware Diversified Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

DPCFX Fund  USD 7.76  0.00  0.00%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Delaware Diversified Income on the next trading day is expected to be 7.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.71. Delaware Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Delaware Diversified's mutual fund price is slightly above 67 suggesting that the mutual fund is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Delaware, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 67

 Buy Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Delaware Diversified's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Delaware Diversified Income, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Delaware Diversified hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Delaware Diversified Income from the perspective of Delaware Diversified response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Delaware Diversified Income on the next trading day is expected to be 7.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.71.

Delaware Diversified after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 7.76  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Delaware Diversified to cross-verify your projections.

Delaware Diversified Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Delaware price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Delaware using various technical indicators. When you analyze Delaware charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Delaware Diversified simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Delaware Diversified Income are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Delaware Diversified prices get older.

Delaware Diversified Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 7th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Delaware Diversified Income on the next trading day is expected to be 7.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0002, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.71.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Delaware Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Delaware Diversified's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Delaware Diversified Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Delaware DiversifiedDelaware Diversified Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Delaware Diversified Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Delaware Diversified's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Delaware Diversified's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 7.57 and 7.95, respectively. We have considered Delaware Diversified's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
7.76
7.76
Expected Value
7.95
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Delaware Diversified mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Delaware Diversified mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria107.8139
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -2.0E-4
MADMean absolute deviation0.0118
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0015
SAESum of the absolute errors0.7097
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Delaware Diversified Income forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Delaware Diversified observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Delaware Diversified

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Delaware Diversified. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
7.577.767.95
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
7.577.767.95
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Delaware Diversified. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Delaware Diversified's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Delaware Diversified's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Delaware Diversified.

Other Forecasting Options for Delaware Diversified

For every potential investor in Delaware, whether a beginner or expert, Delaware Diversified's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Delaware Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Delaware. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Delaware Diversified's price trends.

Delaware Diversified Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Delaware Diversified mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Delaware Diversified could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Delaware Diversified by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Delaware Diversified Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Delaware Diversified's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Delaware Diversified's current price.

Delaware Diversified Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Delaware Diversified mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Delaware Diversified shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Delaware Diversified mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Delaware Diversified Income entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Delaware Diversified Risk Indicators

The analysis of Delaware Diversified's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Delaware Diversified's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting delaware mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Delaware Mutual Fund

Delaware Diversified financial ratios help investors to determine whether Delaware Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Delaware with respect to the benefits of owning Delaware Diversified security.
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