Drageus Games Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| DRG Stock | 1.31 0.01 0.76% |
Drageus Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of today, the value of RSI of Drageus Games' share price is approaching 40 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Drageus Games, making its price go up or down. Momentum 40
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Drageus Games hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Drageus Games SA from the perspective of Drageus Games response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Drageus Games SA on the next trading day is expected to be 1.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.57. Drageus Games after-hype prediction price | PLN 1.31 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Drageus |
Drageus Games Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Drageus price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Drageus using various technical indicators. When you analyze Drageus charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Momentum Indicators | ||
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| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Drageus Games Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Drageus Games SA on the next trading day is expected to be 1.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.57.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Drageus Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Drageus Games' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Drageus Games Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Drageus Games | Drageus Games Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Drageus Games Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Drageus Games' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Drageus Games' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 5.97, respectively. We have considered Drageus Games' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Drageus Games stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Drageus Games stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0123 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0435 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0295 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.5691 |
Predictive Modules for Drageus Games
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Drageus Games SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Drageus Games' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Drageus Games After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Drageus Games at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Drageus Games or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Drageus Games, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Drageus Games Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Drageus Games' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Drageus Games' historical news coverage. Drageus Games' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.07 and 5.91, respectively. We have considered Drageus Games' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Drageus Games is dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Drageus Games SA is based on 3 months time horizon.
Drageus Games Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Drageus Games is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Drageus Games backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Drageus Games, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.37 | 4.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
1.31 | 1.31 | 0.00 |
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Drageus Games Hype Timeline
Drageus Games SA is currently traded for 1.31on Warsaw Stock Exchange of Poland. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Drageus is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.37%. %. The volatility of related hype on Drageus Games is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.31. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Drageus Games to cross-verify your projections.Drageus Games Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Drageus Games' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Drageus Games' future price movements. Getting to know how Drageus Games' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Drageus Games may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CIG | CI Games SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 3.57 | (3.28) | 11.19 | |
| DRG | Drageus Games SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 5.80 | (10.92) | 40.91 | |
| EXA | Examobile SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.92 | 0.07 | 6.33 | (5.42) | 20.44 | |
| ULG | Ultimate Games SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.83 | (0.01) | 4.27 | (3.42) | 8.87 | |
| IPO | Intersport Polska SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 4.17 | (3.92) | 13.24 | |
| TEN | TEN SQUARE GAMES | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.17 | 0.12 | 3.65 | (1.92) | 7.64 | |
| QNT | Quantum Software SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.29 | 0.16 | 5.76 | (2.38) | 35.98 |
Other Forecasting Options for Drageus Games
For every potential investor in Drageus, whether a beginner or expert, Drageus Games' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Drageus Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Drageus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Drageus Games' price trends.Drageus Games Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Drageus Games stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Drageus Games could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Drageus Games by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Drageus Games Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Drageus Games stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Drageus Games shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Drageus Games stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Drageus Games SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Drageus Games Risk Indicators
The analysis of Drageus Games' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Drageus Games' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting drageus stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.15 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.62 | |||
| Variance | 31.62 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Drageus Games
The number of cover stories for Drageus Games depends on current market conditions and Drageus Games' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Drageus Games is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Drageus Games' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for Drageus Stock Analysis
When running Drageus Games' price analysis, check to measure Drageus Games' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Drageus Games is operating at the current time. Most of Drageus Games' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Drageus Games' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Drageus Games' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Drageus Games to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.